Weekly Recap of Local weather and Power Information # 430

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The week that was: 2020-11-07 (November 7, 2020)
Presented by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The science and environmental project

Quote of the week:: “Philosophy is written in this great book, the universe that is always open to our gaze. But the book can only be understood if you first learn to understand the language and read the letters in which it is written. “- Galileo

Number of weeks: plus 1.5%

THIS WEEK:

By Ken Haapala, President of the Science and Environment Policy Project (SEPP)

Van Wijngaarden and Happer continued: Last week, TWTW discussed the preprint of the paper "Dependence of the Earth's Thermal Radiation on Five Most Commonly Occurring Greenhouse Gases" by WA van Wijngaarden and W. Happer (W & H), two recognized experts in atomic, molecular and optical physics ( AMO). Understanding the greenhouse effect requires an understanding of AMO, particularly to assess the extent to which increasing greenhouse gases can warm the earth. At the end of last week's discussion, TWTW stated:

“As Lindzen said, doubling CO2 will only have a minor impact on the earth's climate. A few percent of the total energy flows onto the earth and into space. Again the Exponential functions The ones used by the IPCC (UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) are pure fantasy. As will be discussed next week, halving the amount of CO2 present has little effect and the amount of time CO2 remains in the atmosphere is not particularly meaningful. The removal of carbon dioxide is of little or no value. "(Bold and underline added)

The term "exponential functions" is incorrect. It would have been better to say, “Those again exponential relationships The ones used by the IPCC are pure fantasy. "

Another inappropriate term is tipping point, which stems from the phenomenon where a tipped object falls over – and does not return to its original position – once the center of gravity is off the base. A climatic tipping point would be a point where (say) the planet gets relentlessly hotter and never cools down. The term is completely unsuitable to describe the earth, which swings back and forth from glacial to interglacial.

In addition, it is important to emphasize that the S&H work supports previous work of others. As stated in the summary:

“By doubling the current concentrations of CO2, N2O or CH4, the forces are increased by a few percent. These forcing results are close to previously published values, although neither a CO2 nor an H2O continuum was used in the calculations. The change in surface temperature due to the doubling of CO2 is estimated taking into account the radiative convective equilibrium of the atmosphere as well as the water feedback for the cases of fixed absolute and relative humidity as well as the effect of using a pseudoadiabatic time-lapse rate to model the troposphere temperature. "

In contrast to the models used by the IPCC, W&H compared their results with appropriate physical evidence. You do this in Section 8, "Comparing the Model Intensities with Satellite Observations":

The authors realize that it would be ideal to compare their calculations with satellite observations over the tropics, but the interferometer data is not available. Also note the thermal inversion that occurs in Antarctica during winter.

Among other conclusions that readers of TWTW may find interesting are:

“Radiative forcing is heavily dependent on latitude, as shown in Figs. 1 and 2. 7 and 8 (not shown here). In the vicinity of the winter poles with very little water vapor in the atmosphere, CO2 dominates radiative forcing. Radiation from H2O, CO2, and O3 into space in the relatively warm upper atmosphere can exceed radiation from the cold surface of the ice sheet, and Top of Atmosphere (TOA) forcing can be negative.

"Fig. 9 as well as Tables 2 and 4 (not shown here) show that at current concentrations the forces of all greenhouse gases are saturated. The saturation of the abundant greenhouse gases H2O and CO2 is so extreme that the per-molecule drive over the optically thin values ​​is weakened by four orders of magnitude. The saturation also suppresses the driving force per molecule for the less common greenhouse gases O3, N2O and CH4 from their optically thin values, but far less than for H2O and CO2.

“Table 2 and Fig. 10 (not shown here) show that the overlap of the absorption bands of greenhouse gases means that their forces are only roughly additive. One greenhouse gas disrupts and reduces the forces of everyone else. However, a greenhouse gas's self-interference or saturation is a much larger effect than the interference between different gases. Table 4 shows that under optically thin conditions the driving force per molecule is roughly the same for all greenhouse gases, a few times 10-22 W per molecule. "(Added bold)

The problem of water vapor is central to the estimates in the Charney Report of 1979 that doubling CO2 emissions would lead to a temperature rise of 3 K plus or minus 1.5 K. These estimates were continued from the atmosphere by the IPCC and its supporters with no physical evidence.

As stated in TWTW last week, W&H has three estimates of the impact of doubling CO2. For a fixed absolute humidity and a constant rate of decrease (temperature decrease with increasing altitude below the tropopause (where water from the atmosphere freezes)) the estimate is 1.4 K (ͦ C or 2.5 ͦ F). For a fixed relative humidity and a constant decay rate, the estimate is 2.3 K (ͦ C or 4.1 ͦ F), and for a fixed relative humidity and a pseudoadiabatic decay rate (condensation is removed immediately) the estimate is 2.2 ͦ K (ͦ C or 4) ͦ F) All of these estimates are below the mean estimate of 3.0 ͦ C used in IPCC reports.

Since the greenhouse gases are particularly saturated for H2O and CO2, there is no reason to accept estimates above 3.0 ° C without providing compelling physical evidence of severe warming of the atmosphere, which is completely absent in the IPCC reports. As can be seen from the McKitrick and Christy report and the recent report on the evolution of atmospheric mass temperature by Roy Spencer and the Earth System Science Center (UAH), the linear warming trend is modest:

"The linear warming trend since January 1979 has remained at +0.14 C / decade (+0.12 C / decade above the globally averaged oceans and +0.18 C / decade above the globally averaged country)."

Despite terrible reports There is no evidence of dangerous warming from greenhouse gases. See links under Challenging Orthodoxy.

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Clouds – the great unknown: The Charney report claimed that slight warming from carbon dioxide is exacerbated by warming from water vapor. The IPCC Second Assessment Report (SAR, 1996) claimed a pronounced warming trend for water vapor over the tropics and identified it as a "human fingerprint". The human fingerprint has yet to be found. However, the IPCC and its supporters continue to claim to compound CO2 warming.

As stated by McKitrick and Christy in a letter published by the AGU in July:

“The literature pointing to an upward bias of the warming responses of the climate model in the tropical troposphere goes back at least 15 years (Karl et al., 2006). Instead of being resolved, the problem has worsened as every member of the CMIP6 generation of climate models is now sloping upward across both the global troposphere and the tropics. The models with lower ECS values ​​(Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity) show warming rates that are somewhat closer to the observed values, but are still clearly distorted upwards and do not overlap the observations. Models with higher ECS values ​​also have higher tropospheric warming rates, and applying the emerging constraint concept implies that an ensemble of models with warming rates that are consistent with observations are likely to have ECS values ​​at or below the bottom of the CMIP6 range should have. Our results reflect the latest findings from the inspection of CMIP6-ECS (Voosen, 2019) and paleoclimate simulations (Zhu et al., 2020), which also show a systematic bias in the latest generation of climate models. "

The remaining great unknown is clouds. Measurements of mass temperature trends should include their influence. However, the estimates of the greenhouse effect from greenhouse gases such as those by W&H above are not. But they measure the greenhouse effect themselves.

Low clouds can cool the earth by reflecting 30 to 60% of the sunlight. High-grade clouds can warm the earth by allowing sunlight to pass through, but disrupting the radiant energy emanating from the surface into space. Retired physicist Ralph Alexander has a good explanation on his blog. According to Alexander, the latest generation of models from the United Nations IPCC, CMIP6, relies on the magic of clouds.

The latest generation of computer models, known as the CMIP6, predicts an even larger – and potentially fatal – area of ​​future warming than previous models. This is mainly because the models find that in a hotter world, low clouds get thinner and many would not form at all. The result would be even stronger positive cloud feedback and additional warming. However, since many models in recent decades have not been able to accurately simulate actual temperatures, their predictions over clouds are suspect.

Alexander refers to a project to find the influence of clouds. However, given the bias of the IPCC, it is questionable whether the project will be unbiased. An article from Columbia University, a leader in climate activism, states:

"Any degree or even half a degree of global warming can have far-reaching and devastating effects," said (project renter Gregory) Cesana. "So it's very important to be able to narrow this down."

Given the widespread natural warming and cooling of the planet, particularly during the Ice Ages, is the researcher showing a trend? See the links under Challenging Orthodoxy and Defending Orthodoxy.

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Science of Politics: Last week TWTW linked an article by Judith Curry that deserves further discussion. Curry writes:

“The Dutch lawyer Lucas Bergkamp sums up the challenge in this way. Science has become a tool that politicians and authorities use to equip themselves with strong arguments in complex valuable debates. Scientists let politicians kidnap the scientific enterprise. Both policymakers and academics use scientific uncertainty to avoid a debate about the relationship between science and politics, facts and values. Armed with science, politicians can avoid accountability for decisions. Serious debate is avoided because politicized science has removed doubt and skepticism. Activist climate science uses a range of strategies and tactics to influence public opinion and politics. Bergkamp concludes that climate science itself has been besieged.

“Research into politics is an answer to persistent political conflicts that turn political questions into scientific ones. The reason for science is the belief that science can act as the neutral arbiter of politics – if we could just determine the facts of a matter, the appropriate course of action would become clear. The problem is that science is neither neutral nor able to answer political questions. The answers that science gives depend on what questions are asked, which inevitably involves value judgments. Science is not meant to answer questions about how the world should be, what the work of politics is.

"Policy makers are to blame for the misuse of science for policy making by:

Viewing science as a means of avoiding "hot potato" politics, expecting black and white answers to complex problems that require scientific arguments for their desired policy, using scientific facts as substitutes for matters of public interest.

"Scientists are to blame for the misuse of science for policy making by:

Naivety regarding the expectation that scientific evidence will reconcile politics with expert judgment by playing power politics with their expertise and combining expert knowledge with values ​​that link controversial facts with identity-defining group commitments.

"In political debates, 'I believe in science' is a statement that is generally made by people who don't understand much about it. They use such statements about science to explain belief in scientific statements that are beyond their knowledge and understanding. Such people's belief in climate change is often more like believing in Santa Claus than actually understanding science.

“In the context of climate change, 'I believe in science' uses the general reputation of science to promote the 'consensus'. to give authority to climate change and protect it from questions and skepticism. "I believe in science" is a sign of social group identity that supports massive government laws limiting or banning fossil fuels. The "belief in science" gives the impression that disagreement about this solution amounts to a rejection of the scientific method and worldview. When exposed to a science that challenges their political biases, those same “believers” are quick to claim “pseudoscience” without considering (or even understanding) the actual evidence or arguments.

“On the other side of the climate debate, there are calls for 'solid science' that arm uncertainty and rigor to make it difficult to use science in making regulatory decisions. Those who advocate for "healthy science" work to heighten uncertainty, create doubt, and undermine scientific discoveries that threaten their interests. The "Sound Science" tactic exploits a fundamental characteristic of the scientific process: Science does not create absolute certainty, but is temporary and can change in the light of new knowledge. " (Bold added.)

TWTW calls it Scientization, Groupthink or Bureaucratic Science. TWTW agrees and looks forward to a fuller discussion of this important topic through Curry. See the link under Finding a Common Basis.

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Sick power grids: Thanks to the fact that the public never has a voice in the 2008 Climate Change Act, the UK is further than the US on the crippling effects of unreliable electricity, with the possible exception of California. Due to its reliance on solar energy, California will face blackouts on hot afternoons and evenings as the sun goes down and consumption increases, despite rising prices.

Due to its reliance on wind power, the UK will experience power outages on cold winter nights when high pressure systems dominate the weather. John Constable, Energy Editor for the Global Warming Policy Forum, has been writing about the problem for some time. After another cold snap, Constable has another good essay with a weather map showing an exceptionally large high pressure system from the central North Atlantic to Moscow near Great Britain. On November 4th and 5th, the network operator, the National Grid, issued system warnings and ordered existing coal and natural gas plants to ignite so that the network would not suffer a blackout. When such a deficiency occurs, the system can crash and cause great damage.

All this despite the fact that consumers and industry are reducing consumption due to rising electricity prices. As Constable writes:

“The fact that power consumption has decreased so much in such a short period of time should be a cause for concern, but it is easy to explain. Renewable energy subsidies were trivial in 2002 and are now £ 10 billion a year and are still rising. Add the system administration fees to that and it's no wonder electricity becomes prohibitive. This is practically price rationing. "

“In a luscious irony, during peak load moments on November 4th, coal, pumped storage and aeroderivative Open Cycle Gas Turbines (a waste of heat) sustained a cold, windless Britain. We were still paying wind turbines in Scotland a total of £ 40,000 an hour to cut power, with a total of £ 500,000 on November 4th. This is despite the £ 1 billion Western Link interconnector between Scotland and England, which is designed to prevent such payments. "

"It is now clear that the UK electricity industry is a messy joke where the consumer and the national interest are repeatedly sacrificed to save the face of government and the revenues of the renewable energy industry."

“The Ministry of Economy, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) is unlikely to have willpower to address the situation, and the Foreign Minister himself, Alok Sharma, is put at risk by his position as chairman of the COP (UN) 26 climate negotiations in the next Year. He won't do anything. "

Just as a hot evening can be disastrous for California, a cold, quiet evening can be disastrous for Britain. Politicians are more interested in saving face than addressing issues they face. Britain could struggle to become the Saudi Arabia of wind power, Prime Minister Boris Johnson said. See links under Challenging Orthodoxy and Challenging the European Green.

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New name, same claims: The company's lawyer, Francis Menton, points out that proponents of the US “Green New Deal” have changed the term for their cause to “Zero Carbon Energy Plan”. As with the Green New Deal, will this plan produce the same amount of electricity as fossil fuels, create millions of jobs without increasing the cost to the consumer? See links under Questions About Green Elsewhere.

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Number of weeks: plus 1.5%. According to I News' Tom Bawden:

"The UK's solar capacity increased by just 1.5 percent last year to 13,500 megawatts – around 5 percent of the country's total power generation capacity."

These numbers anger green politicians and their supporters:

These numbers are appalling. The growth of solar energy has practically stopped. People across the country are calling on the government to take urgent action to tackle the climate emergency, but they keep falling behind, "said Liberal Democratic spokeswoman for the climate emergency, Sarah Olney.

"Greenpeace UK Chief Scientist Doug Parr said," These numbers are a reminder of the enormous opportunity we are missing out on. Solar is the cheapest and most popular source of energy in the UK, but a series of government interventions have managed to discourage people from installing solar panels. "

The claim that solar is the cheapest source of energy comes from the International Energy Agency's World Energy Outlook 2020, which manipulated numbers to claim the increase in carbon dioxide with increasing photosynthesis, leading to destruction, and the report appears to have failed to recognize That solar energy doesn't work well when it's cloudy like in the UK or at night. See link under Alternative, green (“clean”) sun and wind.

Challenging Orthodoxy – NIPCC

Climate change covered II: Physics

Idso, Carter and Singer, lead authors / editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013

Summary: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/CCR/CCR-II/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf

Climate change reconsidered II: Biological effects

Idso, Idso, Carter and Singer, Lead Authors / Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014

Summary: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf

Climate Change Covered II: Fossil Fuels

By multiple authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates and Singer eds., Non-Governmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019

Free download:

Why Scientists Disagree with Global Warming

The NIPCC Scientific Consensus Report

By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter and S. Fred Singer, Non-Governmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), November 23, 2015

Free download:

https://www.heartland.org/policy-documents/why-scientists-disagree-about-global-warming

Nature, not human activity, rules the climate

S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008

Global Sea Level Rise: An Analysis of the Data

By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Policy Brief, May 20, 2019

Challenging Orthodoxy

Dependence of the earth's thermal radiation on the five most common greenhouse gases

By W. A. ​​van Wijngaarden and W. Happer, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics, submitted June 4, 2020

https://arxiv.org/abs/2006.03098

Link to the pre-release version: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03098.pdf

How clouds hold the key to global warming

By Ralph Alexander, Science in Attack, November 2, 2020 (H / t GWPF)

https://www.scienceunderattack.com/blog/2020/11/2/how-clouds-hold-the-key-to-global-warming-64

Penetrating warming distortion in tropospheric CMIP6 layers

By Ross McKitrick and John Christy, Earth and Space Science, July 15, 2020

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020EA001281

Colder weather and weak winds highlight the weakness of the UK electricity grid

By John Constable, GWPF Energy Editor, November 6, 2020

Sea level rise and Antarctica

By Jim Steele, Landscapes and Cycles, Nov 4, 2020

http://www.landscapesandcycles.net/sea-level-rise-and-antarctica.html

Link to an article: Repetition of ice loss in Antarctica due to instability of sea ice cliffs

By Tamsin L. Edwards, Nature on February 6, 2019

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-0901-4

(SEPP Comment: Explanation of possible influences of a negative time-lapse rate on Antarctica, including warming winds.)

Defend Orthodoxy

New project will analyze clouds to make the future climate less nebulous

By Sarah Fecht, State of the Planet, Columbia University, September 1, 2020

Global emissions from food production would put the Paris Agreement out of reach.

By Fiona Harvey, The Guardian, November 5, 2020 (H / t WUWT)

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/nov/05/global-food-production-emissions-would-put-paris-agreement-out-of-reach

Scientists are appalled when hopes of a landslide in the election victory in Biden vanish

With so many votes cast for Trump in the U.S. election, some researchers conclude that they'll have to work harder to communicate the importance of facts, science, and truth.

By Jeff Tollefson, Nature, November 4, 2020 (H / t Dennis Ambler)

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-03120-8

(SEPP Comment: After finding that researchers "… have to work harder to communicate the meaning of facts, science, and truth." The article quotes Naomi Oreskes who did not use these concepts in her famous book.)

Questioning Orthodoxy

Devour his children

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Nov 4, 2020

Terence Corcoran: Tricks and Treats from Peter Foster

Peter Foster's book How Dare You! impales a long list of Halloween characters who have dominated key areas of public order for two decades

By Terence Corcoran, Financial Post, October 30, 2020 (H / t GWPF)

https://financialpost.com/opinion/terence-corcoran-tricks-and-treats-from-peter-foster

Global cooling will kill us all!

By Andy May, WUWT, November 5, 2020

The scientific method at work: The carbon cycle revised

By Ralph Alexander, Science Under Attack, October 19, 2020

https://www.scienceunderattack.com/blog/2020/10/19/the-scientific-method-at-work-the-carbon-cycle-revisited-63

To Paris!

The US is officially leaving the Paris Climate Agreement

By Rebecca Beitsch, The Hill, November 4, 2020

https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/524342-us-officially-exits-paris-climate-accord

America should stay away from Paris

The Paris Agreement is a dangerous violation of democracy. Trump was right to challenge it.

By Ben Pile, Spiked, November 5, 2020 (H / t Paul Homewood)

America should stay out of Paris

Dig Paris – and save America

By Hayden Ludwig & Kevin Mooney on November 4, 2020

https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2020/11/04/ditch_parisand_save_america_582938.html

A celebration: The US withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement becomes official

By Myron Ebell, Inside Sources, November 4, 2020

Change in US administrations

The USA will be subject to the UN Climate Commission if they re-join the Paris Climate Pact

FOIA case "Accord" from Paris Climate: State Dept. published, keeps parts of the memo Sec. John Kerry asks the Authority to sign the Paris Agreement

By Chris Horner, Government Accountability & Oversight on October 20, 2020

Problems in Orthodoxy

"China's green offensive": GAO FOIA suit in series

By Chris Horner, Government Accounting and Oversight on Nov 2, 2020

China's embargo on Australian coal is driving up Mongolian imports of inferior quality

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, November 3, 2020

I'm looking for common ground

Science and politics

By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. October 26, 2020

Large, deep hole in the ozone layer in Antarctica that lasts into November

By Theo Stein for NOAA News, Washington DC (SPX) on November 2, 2020

https://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Large_deep_Antarctic_Ozone_Hole_persisting_into_November_999.html

We have given the federal government too much moral authority

By Jane Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, October 31, 2020

https://www.manhattancontrarian.com/blog/2020-10-31-we-have-ceded-too-much-moral-authority-to-the-federal-government

Science, Politics and Evidence

Covid, climate change and government pressure

By Rupert Darwall, Real Clear Energy, November 3, 2020

https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2020/11/03/covid_climate_change_and_government_coercion_582892.html

COVID: Sweden's experiment didn't work, Belgium is a basket case and the US is not as bad as we think

By Alex Berezow, ACSH, November 3, 2020

https://www.acsh.org/news/2020/11/03/covid-swedens-experiment-didnt-work-belgium-basket-case-and-us-isnt-bad-we-think-15125

Six reasons the new lock is a fatal mistake

By Matt Ridley, Rational Optimist, Oct 31, 2020

http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/the-new-lockdown-is-a-deadly-mistake/

New video: You can't fool Mother Nature

By Tony Heller, His Blog, October 31, 2020

https://realclimatescience.com/2020/10/new-video-you-cant-fool-mother-nature/

(SEPP comment: Heller shows that forest fires normally do not destroy but regenerate.)

Review of current scientific articles from CO2 Science

A reconstruction of the winter temperature in two and a half centuries from northern China

Jiang, Y., Liu, C., Zhang, J., Han, S., Coombs, CEO, Wang, X., Wang, J., Hao, L. and Dong, S. 2020. Tree ring width based January-March medium Reconstruction of the minimum temperature of Larix gmelinii in the Khingan area, China since 1765 AD.International Journal of Climatology, DOI: 10.1002 / joc.6733. November 6, 2020

http://www.co2science.org/articles/V23/nov/a3.php

“Jiang also performed spectral analysis of the data set and found significant cycles at 2-7, 14.7-15.6, 31.4, 41.8, 62.7, and 125.5 years, which were found to be good correlate with the sunspot activity of ENSO (2-7 years) (14.7-15.6 years), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (31.4 years), the North Atlantic Oscillation (41.8 and 62.7 years). These significant correlations of known climate indices, the authors say, "indicated the effects of large variability in the oceanic atmosphere on regional temperatures in the study area." Und wir würden hinzufügen, dass kein signifikanter Anstieg in Die Temperatur seit 1940 deutet darauf hin, dass das steigende atmosphärische CO2 keinen messbaren Einfluss auf die Wintertemperaturen in dieser Region hatte. "

Ein CO2-induzierter Einfluss auf die Lebensparameter von Blattläusen

De Paulo, P. D., Pereira, E. J. G., Oliveira, E. E., Fereres, A. und Garzo, E. 2020. Indirekte Wirkung einer erhöhten CO2-Konzentration auf Bemisia tabaci MEAM1, die sich von Bt-Sojabohnenpflanzen ernährt. Journal of Applied Entomology, doi: 10.1111 / jen.12822. 4. November 2020

http://www.co2science.org/articles/V23/nov/a2.php

„De Paulo et al. Kommentierten ihre verschiedenen Ergebnisse. Zusammenfassend lässt sich sagen, dass unsere Ergebnisse zusammengenommen zeigen, dass unter erhöhtem CO2 kultivierte Bt-Pflanzen die Fütterung von B. tabaci hemmen, wodurch der Befall der Sojabohnenfelder mit weißen Fliegen verringert werden kann. Und dies sind wunderbare Neuigkeiten mit großen Auswirkungen auf die zukünftigen landwirtschaftlichen Erträge in Regionen mit hohen weißen Fliegen Befall. "

Der kombinierte Einfluss von Erwärmung und CO2 auf das Torfwurzelwachstum

Malhotra, A., Brice, D. J., Childs, J., Graham, J. D., Hobbie, E. A., Stel, H. V., Feron, S. C., Hanson, P. J. und Iversen, C. M., Dr. 2020. Die Erwärmung des Moores erhöht das Feinwurzelwachstum stark. Verfahren der National Academy of Sciences USA 117: 17,627-17,634. 2. November 2020

http://www.co2science.org/articles/V23/nov/a1.php

(SEPP-Kommentar: Ein weiteres Experiment, das den falschen Befürchtungen von Klimaalarmisten widerspricht, dass steigende Temperaturen dazu führen werden, dass nördliche Moore (und Tundra) erhebliche Mengen CO2 freisetzen.)

Modelle v. Beobachtungen

Modellfehler: „Alle Modelle werden schneller als Beobachtungen erwärmt“… CO2-Empfindlichkeit Schätzungen „unrealistisch hoch“

Von Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, 2. November 2020

Modellprobleme

CMIP6: Die nächste Generation von Klimamodellen erklärt

Von Zeke Hausfather, Carbon Brief, 2. Dezember 2019, aktualisiert am 5. November 2020

Messprobleme – Oberfläche

Vergleich von USCRN und nClimDiv mit USCHN

Von Andy May, WUWT, 6. November 2020

Aktuelle Unterschiede zwischen USHCN Final und Rohtemperatur

Von Andy May, WUWT, 3. November 2020

1919 oder 1719?

Von John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, 4. November 2020

Messprobleme – Atmosphäre

UAH Global Temperature Update für Oktober 2020: +0,54 Grad. C.

Von Roy Spencer, Sein Blog, 2. November 2020

Link zur hochauflösenden Karte: https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/climate/2020/october2020/202010_map_meb.PNG

Link zum Diagramm: https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/climate/2020/october2020/202010_bar.png

Wechselndes Wetter

Nach fast einem Jahrzehnt ist das Wettersystem von La Niña zurück…

Von Mitarbeitern, UN-Nachrichten, unter Klimawandel, 29. Oktober 2020 (H / t WUWT)

https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/10/1076432

„Obwohl La Niña in der Regel einen kühlenden Effekt auf die globalen Temperaturen hat, besteht kaum eine Chance, dass sich 2020 dem Trend zunehmend warmer Jahre widersetzt.

"Das liegt an der Hitze, die Treibhausgase in unserer Atmosphäre speichern", sagte WMO-Chef Petteri Taalas. "

(SEPP-Kommentar: Ist dem Leiter der WMO nicht klar, dass die Erwärmung der Atmosphäre ein Bruchteil der Oberflächenerwärmung ist? Darüber hinaus ignoriert die UNO ihre eigene Definition des Klimawandels, die über 30 Jahre andauert.

Büro für Meteorologie: Zentraler, östlicher tropischer Pazifik „Coolstes Ereignis seit La Niña seit 2012“

Von P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, 31. Oktober 2020

Klima ändern

Das Problem der grünen Unmoral

Von John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, 4. November 2020

The problem of green immorality

Klimawandel – Kulturen & Zivilisationen

Studie: Alte Menschen in der Türkei haben sich an den Klimawandel angepasst

Pressemitteilung, Cornell Chronical, 30. Oktober 2020 (H / t GWPF)

https://news.cornell.edu/stories/2020/10/study-ancient-people-turkey-adapted-climate-change

Link zum Papier: Jenseits von Megadrought und Zusammenbruch in der nördlichen Levante: Die Chronologie von Tell Tayinat und zwei historische Beugungsepisoden, um 4,2 kA BP und nach 3,2 kA BP

By Sturt W. Manning, et al. Plos One, Oct 29, 2020

https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0240799

Changing Seas

Scientists ‘surprised’ that coral reefs recover after bleaching

By Staff, ABC News, Via GWPF, Nov 6, 2020

Scientists ‘surprised’ that coral reefs recover after bleaching

New Study Effectively Eliminates Confidence In Human Attribution For Modern Global Warming

The forcing uncertainties and lack of observational measurements in the top-to-bottom global ocean preclude an assessment that modern warmth is due to anthropogenic activities.

By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Nov 5, 2020

New Study Effectively Eliminates Confidence In Human Attribution For Modern Global Warming

Link to report: Combining Modern and Paleoceanographic Perspectives on Ocean Heat Uptake” Annual Review of Marine Science

Ed by Geoffrey Gibbie, et al. Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Review in Advance, Sep 14, 2020

https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev-marine-010419-010844

Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice

Western & Southern Hudson Bay polar bears experience earliest freeze-up in decades

By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Nov 3, 2020

Western & Southern Hudson Bay polar bears experience earliest freeze-up in decades

There’s a lot of ice in the Arctic

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Nov 4, 2020

There’s a lot of ice in the Arctic

Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine

Carbon Credits: Irish Farmers Being Paid to Destroy Their Fields

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Nov 6, 2020

Carbon Credits: Irish Farmers Being Paid to Destroy Their Fields

Link to article with photos: Cuilcagh Mountain: Coconut logs form dams to fight climate change

By Conor Macauley, BBC, Nov 6, 2020

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-54831302

Lowering Standards

Met Office Guilty Of Fake “Wettest Month In London” Claims

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 5, 2020

Met Office Guilty Of Fake “Wettest Month In London” Claims

Energy and Race: The Media’s New Intersectionality

By Rupert Darwall, Real Clear Energy, Nov 03, 2020

https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2020/11/03/energy_and_race_the_medias_new_intersectionality_582903.html

CDC Bails on Coronavirus Rules, Goes All In With Democrats

By Charles Rotter, WUWT, Nov 2, 2020

We Have Ceded Too Much Moral Authority To The Federal Government

By Jane Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Oct 31, 2020

https://www.manhattancontrarian.com/blog/2020-10-31-we-have-ceded-too-much-moral-authority-to-the-federal-government

BBC’s Oxford Soggy Month Claims Undermined By The Actual Data!

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 3, 2020

BBC’s Oxford Soggy Month Claims Undermined By The Actual Data!

Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?

Scientists might say

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Nov 4, 2020

Scientists might say

Trends in hurricane behavior show stronger, slower and farther-reaching storms

Press Release, by Eric Verbeten, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Oct 30, 2020 (H/t Bernie Kepshire)

https://phys.org/news/2020-10-trends-hurricane-behavior-stronger-slower.html

Link to paper: The poleward migration of the location of tropical cyclone maximum intensity

By James Kossin, et al. Nature, May 14, 2014

https://www.nature.com/articles/nature13278

(SEPP Comment: The article links to a six-year old study contradicted by the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index.)

Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.

Deloitte: Australia to Lose Trillions Unless We Act on Climate Change

By Eric Worrall, WTWT, Nov 2, 2020

Link to: A new choice: Australia’s climate for growth

By Staff, Deloitte Access Economics, November 2020

https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/au/Documents/Economics/deloitte-au-dae-new-choice-climate-growth.pdf?nc=1

(SEPP Comment: Deloitte is a service organization out to sell its consulting services. The report begins with false assumptions similar to the assumptions that the world was about to run out of oil and natural gas by the year 2000. Economists can dream up anything; however, few economists bother to test their dreams against hard evidence. Example: “the Soviet economy is comparable to that of the US.”)

Cold is hot

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Nov 4, 2020

Cold is hot

IDMC: Internationale Klimaflüchtlinge sind ein Mythos

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Nov 5, 2020

“IDMC, the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, thinks there are lots of climate refugees, but they mainly stay at home.”

Expanding the Orthodoxy

CLINTEL challenges McKinsey’s climate alarmism

By David Wojick, CFACT, Nov 3, 2020

https://www.cfact.org/2020/11/03/clintel-challenges-mckinseys-climate-alarmism/

New York State Value of Carbon Guidance

Guest post by Roger Caiazza, WUWT, Nov 3, 2020

Link to: Value of Carbon Guidance Released for Public Comment

By Staff, The New York State Department of Environmental Conservation, Oct 29, 2020

https://content.govdelivery.com/accounts/NYSDEC/bulletins/2a86d60

The Draft Value of Carbon Guidance and supplemental documents are available for review on DEC’s website. The public is encouraged to submit comments until 5 p.m. Nov. 27, 2020. Comments must be submitted in writing to: Jason Pandich, NYSDEC, 625 Broadway, Albany, NY12233-1030 or email comments to: [email protected]; subject line “Comments on Value of Carbon.”

Link to guidance: Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Limiting Future Impacts of Climate Change

By Staff, Department of Environmental Conservation, Accessed Nov 3

https://www.dec.ny.gov/energy/99223.html

The Great Reset

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 3, 2020

The Great Reset

(SEPP Comment: Similar to the UN IPCC, the World Economic Forum has become a collection of economic potentates seeking to control the public.)

“Voting is Such a Blunt Instrument”: Britain’s Climate Assembly Report Gathers Momentum

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Nov 1, 2020

eal

Questioning European Green

Britain faces green energy disaster as lack of wind triggers new blackout warning

By Staff, GWPF & The Times, Nov 4, 2020

Britain faces green energy disaster as lack of wind triggers new blackout warning

“National Grid last night sent out an urgent call for more power stations to fire up to keep Britain’s lights on today after plant outages and low wind farm output increased the risk of blackouts.”

“The alert and the prospect of Britain relying on polluting coal plants to keep the lights on will raise concerns about energy security. All coal plants are due to close by October 2024, while the government recently committed to a renewed push for offshore wind farms.”

Die GWPF fordert dringend eine Untersuchung des steigenden Stromausfallrisikos, das die nationale Sicherheit bedroht

Press Release, GWPF, Nov 6, 2020

GWPF calls for urgent inquiry into rising blackout risk, threatening national security

“The engineering of our electricity industry is a national embarrassment, with National Grid sent into a panic by the first mild frosts of winter, and consumer costs at horrific levels. The renewables policy of the last twenty years is to blame and government must now change course.” – John Constable

First Dutch climate refugees fleeing wind turbines: “The noise is unbearable”

By Edwin Timmer, De Telegraaf, Via GWPF, Nov 2, 2020

First Dutch climate refugees fleeing wind turbines: “The noise is unbearable”

Questioning Green Elsewhere

“Experts” Weigh In On The Zero Carbon Energy Plan

By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Nov 3, 2020

https://www.manhattancontrarian.com/blog/2020-11-3-experts-weigh-in-on-the-biden-energy-plan

US Elections: The ‘Green Wave’ that failed to materialise

By Staff, NYT, Via GWPF, Nov 11, 2020

Funding Issues

ANZ bankers kneel to carbon God, betray Australian farmers, miners — “don’t deserve a banking licence”

By Jo Nova, Nov 1, 2020

ANZ bankers kneel to carbon God, betray Australian farmers, miners — “don’t deserve a banking licence”

Why the next financial crisis could be green

States, banks and big business have gone all in on ‘sustainable’ funny money.

By James Woudhuysen, Spiked, Nov 2, 2020

Why the next financial crisis could be green

Litigation Issues

Youth-led climate change lawsuit dismissed by Federal Court

Appeal planned, after case calling for climate change plan fails

By Yvette Brend, CBC News, Oct 27, 2020 (H/t Cooler Heads)

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/climate-change-lawsuit-fails-dismissed-1.5778952

Oregon Supreme Court rejects climate change lawsuit that cites public trust doctrine

By Debra Cassens Weiss, ABA Journal, Oct 23, 2020 (H/t Cooler Heads)

https://www.abajournal.com/news/article/oregon-supreme-court-turns-back-climate-change-lawsuit

Energy Issues – Australia

Age of Un-Reason: How Fear & Ignorance Drives Wind & Solar Worship Cult

By An Australian Group, Stop These Things, Oct 31, 2020

Energy Issues — US

A Free Market Energy Vision

By Robert Bradley, Master Resource, Nov 4, 2020

Burning Stuff is so 16th Century

By Kip Hansen, WUWT, Nov 4, 2020

Health and environmental experts are coming for your gas stove

By Hannah Sparks, New York Post, Oct 29, 2020

https://nypost.com/2020/10/29/health-and-environmental-experts-are-coming-for-your-gas-stove/?utm_source=twitter_sitebuttons&utm_medium=site%20buttons&utm_campaign=site%20buttons

Trump ousts Chatterjee, taps Danly to lead FERC

By Catherine Morehouse, Utility Dive, Nov 5, 2020

https://www.utilitydive.com/news/trump-ousts-chatterjee-taps-danly-to-lead-ferc/588526/

Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?

Trump Signs Order to Protect Fracking, Fossil Fuel Jobs

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Nov 1, 2020

Return of King Coal?

Powder River Basin coal facing point of no return

By Greg Johnson Gillette News Record Via Wyoming News Exchange, Oct 26, 2020

https://www.rawlinstimes.com/news/powder-river-basin-coal-facing-point-of-no-return/article_e26f4f03-d24f-50fb-8d80-1a79744e6de3.html

Nuclear Energy and Fears

New nuclear plant at Sizewell set for green light

By Simon Jack, BBC, Nov 1, 2020

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-54754016

UK fusion experiment used in hunt for clean energy

By Paul Rincon, BBC, Oct 31, 2020

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-54741375

Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind

Solar panel installations by homeowners and power companies plummet after subsidy cuts

By Tom Bawden, I News, Nov 4, 2020

https://inews.co.uk/news/environment/solar-panel-installations-homeowners-power-companies-plummet-749069

Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other

Spanish Researchers Claim a Green Hydrogen Breakthrough

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Nov 4, 2020

Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles

No Gasoline Cars after 2035

By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Nov 4, 2020

https://ddears.com/2020/11/04/no-gasoline-cars-after-2035/

Carmakers turn to creative bookkeeping to meet EU CO2 goals

By Sam Morgan, EURACTIV.com, Nov 3, 2020 (H/t Dennis Ambler)

Carmakers turn to creative bookkeeping to meet EU CO2 goals

California Dreaming

Latino Leaders Are Fighting California’s ‘Unbelievably Regressive’ Climate Policies

By Robert Bryce, Forbes, Nov 1, 2020

https://www.forbes.com/sites/robertbryce/2020/11/01/latino-leaders-are-fighting-californias-unbelievably-regressive-climate-policies/?sh=88a88f44a420

Health, Energy, and Climate

Die WHO drängt auf weitere Maßnahmen gegen den Klimawandel

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Nov 5, 2020

Other News that May Be of Interest

A Rainbow Without Colors: The Rare Fog Bow is Seen in Seattle

By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Nov 2, 2020

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2020/11/a-rainbow-without-colors-rare-fog-bow.html

Tonight! A Rare Blue, Micro-moon on Halloween!

By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Oct 31, 2020

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2020/10/tonight-rare-blue-micro-moon-on.html

BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE

Claim: Fracking will increase radon down wind

By Warren Kindzierski and Stanley Young, WUWT, Nov 2, 2020

(SEPP Comment: By miniscuale amounts?)

Giant iceberg floating toward island in the Atlantic Ocean, could endanger wildlife

By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Nov 4, 2020

https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/524455-giant-iceberg-floating-toward-island-in-the-atlantic-ocean-could

Perhaps the stupidest article title ever: "The Arctic has not been so warm in 3 million years" … AEUHHH ???

By David Middleton, WUWT, Nov 6, 2020

William Can’t Sleep Because Of Climate Change!

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 3, 2020

William Can’t Sleep Because Of Climate Change!

ARTICLES

New York Banks Need to Brace for Climate Change, Regulator Says

New York State Department of Financial Services superintendent warns of unprecedented financial risks from climate change

By Dieter Holger, WSJ, Oct 29, 2020

https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-york-banks-need-to-brace-for-climate-change-regulator-says-11603988421

TWTW Summary: According to the article:

“A New York state regulator set expectations for banks and other financial companies to prepare for risks arising from climate change, and the transition away from fossil fuels.

“‘Financial risks from climate change are unprecedented,’ said Linda Lacewell, superintendent of the New York State Department of Financial Services, in a letter sent to New York-based banks on Thursday.

"Frau. Lacewell pointed to two dangers that analysts say banks and other financial companies face from climate change: physical risks and transition risks. Physical risks are damages from severe weather caused by climate change, while transition risks arise when banks are too reliant on fossil-fuel financing jeopardized by government policies and changing energy habits. Transition risks include so-called stranded assets—like coal and oil—that turn out to be worth less than expected due to the world’s shift to cleaner energy.

“More than half of all syndicated lending at major U.S. banks is exposed to significant climate-change risk, which could result in more than $100 billion in losses, according to a report published in October by sustainable-finance nonprofit Ceres.

“Formed in 2011 as a merger between the New York State Insurance Department and New York State Banking Department, the DFS regulates around 1,500 banks and other financial groups managing more than $2.6 trillion in assets. It also regulates nearly 1,800 insurers with assets totaling more than $4.7 trillion. Last month, Ms. Lacewell sent a letter to insurers that carried a similar set of expectations.

“She recommended banks take steps across their governance, risk management and business strategies to better prepare for climate change though these approaches should be based on the size and complexity of the bank.

“They include putting a board member, board committee and a senior official in charge of reviewing financial risks from climate change and disclosing through frameworks like the Michael Bloomberg-backed Task Force on Climate-Related Financial Disclosures, which has been cited by other regulators world-wide. Ms. Lacewell didn’t threaten any repercussions for not following these guidelines.”

The article concludes with the results of a poll, without disclosing the questions. Such polls are easily manipulated. The real risk is not from human-caused climate change, but from regulators using it for expanding power.

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