Science News

Weekly Recap of Local weather and Vitality Information # 429

The week that was: 2020-10-31 (October 31, 2020)
Presented by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The science and environmental project

Quote of the week:: "Quantum theory delivers a lot, but hardly brings us close to the secrets of the old. I am definitely convinced that he does not roll the dice with the universe." Albert Einstein to Max Born (1926)

Number of week: 2%

THIS WEEK:

By Ken Haapala, President of the Science and Environment Policy Project (SEPP)

Knew what The above quote shows the frustration Einstein had with quantum physics because of the inability to accurately predict what will happen in nature at the atomic and subatomic levels. For example, it is not possible to predict exactly what will happen to a photon when an excited molecule emits it. The photon can go in any direction.

We have built large industries in electronics and other fields on principles developed in quantum physics. These industries include transistors (including computer chips); Cell phones, laptops, tablets, etc .; Nuclear power; Health, magnetic resonance imaging, or MRI; Lasers for DVDs, scanners at the checkout, industrial metal cutting, eye surgery, etc.

The multi-billion dollar "climate science" industry, however, largely ignores quantum physics and the field of physics in which it is contained – atomic, molecular, and optical physics (AMO) – even though "climate science" relies on computer modeling for the computers what is required are transistors whose understanding is based on quantum physics.

Herein lies the “fatal flaw” of the climate science industry, led by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and its supporters such as the US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). They ignore decades of extensive research into the greenhouse effect by physicists and others who are not part of this facility.

Based on experiments from 1859 onwards, Irish physicist John Tyndall explained that certain gases absorb infrared radiation, which is longer than visible light and which travels from Earth into space. These gases keep the earth's night temperatures far higher than usual, protecting the land masses from extreme freezing temperatures at night. Without this effect it is doubtful that complex vegetative and animal life would exist on land. His calculations were refined, but Tyndall realized that water vapor was the main greenhouse gas. Carbon dioxide (CO2) is secondary.

Until the end of World War II, the Air Force was interested in how water vapor absorbed and emitted electromagnetic radiation. It funded a major research effort through the Air Force Geophysical Laboratories. A report from Ford Aerospace and Communications Corporation, Aeronutronic Division (as written in the document) (1982) on "Continuum Absorption by H2O". specified:

“Water vapor is responsible for much of the absorption in the lower atmosphere in the infrared, millimeter wave and microwave windows. Large fluctuations in air temperature and humidity lead to large fluctuations in the attenuation in these windows. Although the positions, intensities and widths of most of the significant H2O (absorption lines) are known, the absorption in the windows cannot be calculated precisely from theoretical considerations alone. Many instruments and complex systems such as thermal imagers, remote sensing systems, viewfinders, trackers, and laser communication systems are designed to operate in one or more atmospheric windows. Therefore, a good understanding of the nature of the continuum absorption and the ability to predict it is crucial. "

A 1946 report by the Columbia Radiation Laboratory of Columbia University, New York, dealt with "water vapor absorption of electromagnetic radiation in the centimeter wavelength range". Columbia University is now a center for carbon dioxide-induced warming alarmists who ignore previous research.

Those who claim meaning by declaring “Exxon Knew” or “Ford Knew” achieve little. What did you know Water vapor is an important greenhouse gas that causes the transmission of infrared energy into space. You can also explain: "The Irish Knew". See links under Communicate Better With The Public – Use Yellow (Green) Journalism ?, Communicate Better With The Public – Make Things Up, https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a112264.pdf and https: //journals.aps.org/pr/abstract/10.1103/PhysRev.70.300

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What do we know? We know that the greenhouse effect occurs in the atmosphere and cannot be described by a few simple equations. As explained below, we know the CO2 absorption spectrum pretty well and know how much infrared energy is blocked by CO2 at all CO2 concentrations and altitudes. Contrary to what many “climate researchers” claim, all of climate science is not that well developed. As a result, we cannot simply model it, and long-term predictions that do not include measurements of the effects of changing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere are likely to be incorrect.

In the late 1960s, the Air Force Cambridge Research Laboratories (AFCRL) began funding a long-term database project to gain detailed knowledge of the infrared properties of the atmosphere known as HITRAN. HITRAN is an abbreviation for high-resolution database for transmission molecular absorption. HITRAN is a compilation of spectroscopic parameters used by various computer codes to predict and simulate the transmission and emission of light in the atmosphere.

"The HITRAN compilation and associated database HITEMP (high temperature spectroscopic absorption parameters) are developed and maintained in the Department of Atomic and Molecular Physics of the Harvard Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics under the direction of Dr. Laurence S. Rothman."

“Soon the goals of HITRAN expanded considerably. The spectral scope soon encompassed the microwave through the visible part of the electromagnetic spectrum. In terms of physics, this meant both pure rotation transitions and Ro-vibration (and even some transitions between different electronic states). Applications also went beyond the simple atmosphere, adding many molecules that were trace species in the atmosphere and pollutants in the troposphere. More recently, HITRAN has served the planetary atmosphere community. As a result, the transitions in the database have included more basic parameters, especially those that allow the simulation of collision broadening of spectral lines. "

“The current and planned remote sensing satellite missions also placed new demands on HITRAN in terms of precision and accuracy. Line positions and intensities are captured with unparalleled accuracy. "

This is probably the best database in the world on what is happening in the atmosphere, including changes in the existing greenhouse effect. It is being ignored by the IPCC, the USGCRP, and similar organizations that purportedly produce climate science and how changes in the greenhouse effect are changing the climate.

As discussed in previous TWTWs, AMO physicists William van Wijngaarden and William Happer (W&H) tried to publish a paper with this mixture of calculated and experimental data. Western science magazines have treated them as if they were the authors of a shocking 1920s novel that will scandalize the Puritan politicians in Boston and lead to the term banned in Boston. David Wojick writes in CFACT and presents the preprint.

John Kerry claimed that climate science is simple physics. The W&H paper on estimating the change in the greenhouse effect in the atmosphere due to the addition of carbon dioxide contains 15 figures, 5 tables and 92 equations, many of which require a mastery of integral calculus. If Kerry's version of climate science is simple physics, it doesn't involve the greenhouse effect.

Parts of the paper are presented in this TWTW and discussed further in the next TWTW. The summary says:

“The atmospheric temperatures and concentrations of the five most important greenhouse gases on earth, H2O, CO2, O3, N2O and CH4, control the cloud-free flow of heat radiation from the earth into space. Over 1/3 million lines with strengths (wavelengths) of only 10-27 cm (10 to minus 27th power) from the HITRAN database were used to assess the dependence of the drive on the gas concentrations. For a hypothetical, optically thin atmosphere in which the absorption bands are negligibly saturated or one type of greenhouse gas interferes with another, the forces per molecule are on the order of 10 to 22 W (10 to minus 22 power of W). for H2O, CO2, O3, N2O and CH4. For current atmospheric concentrations, the forces of the abundant greenhouse gases H2O and CO2 that occur per molecule are suppressed by four orders of magnitude. The forces of the less common greenhouse gases O3, N2O and CH4 are also suppressed, but much less so. For current concentrations, the forces per molecule are two to three orders of magnitude greater for O3, N2O and CH4 than those of H2O or CO2. By doubling the current concentrations of CO2, N2O or CH4, the forces are increased by a few percent. These forcing results are close to previously published values, although neither a CO2 nor an H2O continuum was used in the calculations. The change in surface temperature due to the doubling of CO2 is estimated taking into account the radiative convective equilibrium of the atmosphere as well as the water feedback for the cases of fixed absolute and relative humidity as well as the effect of using a pseudoadiabatic time-lapse rate to model the troposphere temperature. Satellite spectral measurements at different latitudes are in excellent quantitative agreement with the modeled intensities. "

The W&H paper deals with the five most important greenhouse gases that were examined from the point of view of a cloud-free atmosphere. Clouds reflect part of the radiation coming from the sun, but they also reduce the radiation emanating from the earth into space, especially for the greenhouse effect. Ideally, from the greenhouse perspective, the nighttime warming effect of clouds is eliminated and the greenhouse effect is considered alone.

In the current atmosphere, with a CO2 content of around 400 ppm (400 ppm), the influence of adding a CO2 molecule is "suppressed by four orders of magnitude," or about ten thousand of the influence of the first molecules. Both CO2 and water vapor are saturated with the language common to those who study this field. An increase in these gases has no significant effects on the earth's climate. Such an effect can be described by a logarithmic function, not its inverse, an exponential function that has been used in IPCC reports. The addition of CO2 into the atmosphere by humanity does not cause a "climate crisis".

For a doubling of CO2, W&H has three estimates of the effects of a doubling of CO2. For a fixed absolute humidity and a constant rate of decrease (temperature decrease with increasing altitude below the tropopause (where water from the atmosphere freezes)) the estimate is 1.4 K (ͦ C or 2.5 ͦ F). For a fixed relative humidity and a constant decay rate, the estimate is 2.3 K (ͦ C or 4.1 ͦ F), and for a fixed relative humidity and a pseudoadiabatic decay rate (condensation is removed immediately) the estimate is 2.2 ͦ K (ͦ C or 4) ͦ F) All of these estimates are below the mean estimate of 3.0 ͦ C used in IPCC reports.

One conclusion to be discussed further next week is:

“The most striking fact about radiation transfer in the earth's atmosphere is summarized in Figs. (Not shown here) Doubling the current concentrations of the greenhouse gases CO2, N2O and CH4 increases the forces for cloud-free parts of the atmosphere by a few percent. Table 3

shows that the forces are comparable both up in the atmosphere and in the tropopause

to those found by other groups. "

As Lindzen said, doubling CO2 will have little impact on the earth's climate. A few percent of the total energy flows onto the earth and into space. Again, the exponential functions used by the IPCC are pure fantasy. As will be discussed next week, halving the amount of CO2 present has little effect and the amount of time CO2 remains in the atmosphere is not particularly meaningful. The carbon dioxide capture is of little or no value. See links under Challenging Orthodoxy.

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Accuracy of the new IPCC models: Dr. Patrick Frank is a research fellow at Stanford Synchrotron Radiation Lightsource / SLAC at Stanford University. According to its website, the National Accelerator Laboratory (SLAC) is a national laboratory with multiple programs dealing with border issues Photon science, Astrophysics, biochemistry, materials science, particle physics and accelerator research. "(Added bold)

Frank has written extensively about the accuracy or inaccuracy of the global climate models used by the IPCC. In WUWT he checks the latest models that are available to the public. In his conclusions, Frank states:

“Firstly, like their predecessors, CMIP6 models project air temperatures as a linear extrapolation of the drive.

Second, like their predecessors, CMIP6 climate models cause large simulation errors in the cloud fraction.

Third, like their predecessors, CMIP6 climate models produce LWCF errors that are vastly larger than the tiny annual increase in tropospheric forcing caused by greenhouse gas emissions.

Fourth, CMIP6 climate models, like their predecessors, generate uncertainties that are so large and immediate that the air temperatures cannot be reliably projected even after a year.

Fifthly, like their predecessors, CMIP6 climate models must have a resolution that is around 1000 times better in order to reliably record a CO2 signal.

Sixth, CMIP6 climate models, like their predecessors, generate physically meaningless air temperature projections.

Seventh, like their predecessors, CMIP6 climate models have no predictive value. "

Frank's first statement about the models undermines the models' credibility even before they are tested against physical evidence. Decades of experiments and now decades of atmospheric observations show that changes in atmospheric temperatures due to an increase in CO2 cannot be precisely described by a linear function, but require a logarithmic function. Hence, using these models to project or extrapolate is meaningless and the results should be ignored. See links under Challenging Orthodoxy and https://www-ssrl.slac.stanford.edu/content/about-ssrl/about-stanford-synchrotron-radiation-lightsource

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Roger Revelle: Andy May also writes in WUWT and discusses the sad episode of political influence on science. Then-Vice President Al Gore's staff attempted to discredit a 1992 paper written by Roger Revelle (who later died), Chauncey Starr, and SEPP President S. Fred Singer. The Gore associate claimed Revelle, a former Al Gore teacher, was physically unable to co-author. Starr had notes of previous drafts with Revelle's handwritten changes. Singer later successfully sued but did not collect anything. Andy May gives us an example of how ready “saviors of the earth” are to stop the science that questions their cause. See link under Changing Orthodoxy.

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A reporter's question: As described in her essay, Science and Politics, a reporter asked Judith Curry a question:

"I'm turning to scientists this week about the elections. What is your view of this? Which of the candidates has the best science and technology plan for you?"

Curry's answer began:

“I'm not happy with either the Democratic or Republican plans for science in America. Both sides seem to want to use and abuse science as an association to advance their political goals. Republicans seem to prefer to ignore science while Democrats choose science to advance their political agendas. "

No doubt many scientifically minded readers will take her entire answer. TWTW would make two small exceptions to the Republican plans. One exception is the appointment of David Legates as deputy assistant trade minister for environmental observation and forecasting at NOAA. As discussed in TWTW on Sept. 19, Legates has written over 100 articles on climate, precipitation and similar topics and openly questioned the rigor of the reports of the USGCRP, a supporter of the IPCC. With these organizations, claims have become more important than evidence to support them.

The second exception is the recent appointment of Ryan Maue as chief scientist at NOAA. He is an excellent weather modeler in the best sense of the word, evidence-based. With a few notable exceptions like the National Hurricane Center, NOAA's modeling is poor. The long term climate predictions including sea level rise etc are absurd. This includes projections of an exponential rise in sea levels. The recent shift towards naming meaningless, small storms in the middle of the Atlantic is another example of how far NOAA has come from its main mission, as stated on its website:

"To understand and predict changes in climate, weather, oceans and coastlines, share that knowledge and information with others, and maintain and manage coastal and marine ecosystems and resources."

The website also states:

“NOAA is an agency that enriches life through science. Our reach extends from the surface of the sun to the depths of the ocean floor as we work to educate the public about the changing environment.

“From daily weather forecasts, severe storm warnings and climate monitoring to fisheries management, coastal restoration and support for maritime trade, NOAA products and services support economic vitality and impact more than a third of America's gross domestic product. NOAA's dedicated scientists use cutting-edge research and high-tech tools to provide citizens, planners, emergency managers and other decision-makers with the reliable information they need, when they need it. "

However, sections of NOAA ignore the scientific method, which involves evaluating theories, hypotheses, and assumptions against all scientific evidence, not just the evidence supporting political desires.

Maue recognizes the importance of evidence. One example is its use of accumulated cyclonic energy (ACE), which expresses the energy of tropical cyclones over their lifetime. In general, storms are more important in the Pacific than in the Atlantic. According to these calculations, the total frequency and energy do not increase.

See links under Finding a Common Basis, https://www.noaa.gov/about-our-agency#:~:text=Our%20mission,and%20marine%20ecosystems%20and%20resources.&text=Dedicated%20to% 20the% 20understand% 20and% 20responsibility% 20of% 20the% 20environment.

and http://climatlas.com/tropical/

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NOAA & # 39; s Top Scientist? Almost amusingly, Ryan Maue is replacing a career bureaucrat at NOAA who was assistant administrator for oceanic and atmospheric research and acting chief scientist. His professional background was the practice of marine resource law. Some news organizations immediately identified him as NOAA's best scientist. This appears to be the Washington Press Corps' understanding of science. See links under Change in US Administrations and https://www.aspenideas.org/speakers/craig-mclean

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Number of week: 2%. According to reports from W&H and others, it is worth repeating. A doubling of today's CO2 and the associated increase in water vapor will not reduce the infrared energy flowing from the surface into space by more than 2% and it can be much less. So there is no runaway greenhouse, no turning point, no climate crisis, etc.

Comment: Is the sun rising?

The sun, the sea and the European temperatures

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, October 28, 2020

“Even the idea of ​​what causes what can still be won. In the article on European temperatures, they note that sun fluctuations directly affect European temperatures in only a few places, but they also state that they may affect ocean cycles which in turn have a large impact on temperatures, so this may be due to temperature is sun after all. "

censorship

Twitter: Double standards & advertising

By Donna Laframboise, Big Picture News, Oct 28, 2020

“Twitter makes billions on advertising. But restricts Trump tweets on the grounds that they could be misleading. "

(SEPP comment: Which politician does not lead astray?)

Suppression of scientific research

Academic Freedom? The Peter Ridd case is part of a much larger problem with Australian universities

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, October 27, 2020

Win! The Australian government is writing laws to protect people like Peter Ridd in universities

By Jo Nova, Your Blog, October 31, 2020

http://joannenova.com.au/2020/10/winning-australian-govt-writes-laws-to-protect-people-like-peter-ridd-at-universities/

"The Australian government admits that Peter Ridd should never be fired for criticizing James Cook University standards."

Challenging Orthodoxy – NIPCC

Climate change covered II: Physics

Idso, Carter and Singer, lead authors / editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013

Summary: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/CCR/CCR-II/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf

Climate change reconsidered II: Biological effects

Idso, Idso, Carter and Singer, Lead Authors / Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014

Summary: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf

Climate Change Covered II: Fossil Fuels

By multiple authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates and Singer eds., Non-Governmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019

Free download:

Why Scientists Disagree with Global Warming

The NIPCC Scientific Consensus Report

By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter and S. Fred Singer, Non-Governmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), November 23, 2015

Free download:

https://www.heartland.org/policy-documents/why-scientists-disagree-about-global-warming

Nature, not human activity, rules the climate

S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008

Global Sea Level Rise: An Analysis of the Data

By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Policy Brief, May 20, 2019

Challenging Orthodoxy

Study indicates that CO2 no longer heats up

By David Wojick, CFACT, October 26, 2020

https://www.cfact.org/2020/10/26/study-suggests-no-more-co2-warming/

Link to the paper: Dependence of the earth's thermal radiation on the five most common greenhouse gases

By W. A. ​​van Wijngaarden and W. Happer, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics, submitted June 4, 2020

https://arxiv.org/abs/2006.03098

Link to the pre-release version: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03098.pdf

Roger Revelle – the background story of the father of atmospheric CO2 monitoring

By Andy May, WUWT, October 31, 2020

Meet the climatologists social media censors don't want you to know about

By Gregory Wrightstone, Daily Signal, Oct 27, 2020 (H / t Gordon Fulks)

CMIP6 update

By Pat Frank, WUWT, October 27, 2020

War on science

By Tony Heller, His Blog, October 26, 2020

https://realclimatescience.com/2020/10/war-on-science/

Defend Orthodoxy

Air pollution killed 500,000 newborns in 2019: global study

By Staff Writers, Washington (AFP) on October 21, 2020

https://www.terradaily.com/reports/Air_pollution_killed_500k_newborns_in_2019_global_study_999.html

Although not identified, possible link to the study: State of Global Air, 2020

By employees of the Health Effects Institute. The Global Burden of Disease project of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. 2020

file: /// C: /Users/Owner/Downloads/soga-2020-report-10-26_0.pdf

(SEPP Comment: As shown in Figure 3 in the report, high income areas have low mortality rates above PM2.5. In general, no types of fuels are discussed in the report other than "solid fuels for cooking".)

The report on climate change in Africa shows that the heat is increasing north and south and the Sahel is becoming more humid

Press release UN News, October 26, 2020

https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/10/1076162

Link to the report: State of the climate in Africa, 2019

Climate change is increasingly threatening human health, food and water security and socio-economic development in Africa

By staff at the World Meteorological Organization, October 26, 2020

https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/multi-agency-report-highlights-current-and-future-state-of-climate-africa

President Steinmeier: "Without people like Edenhofer, the Paris Agreement and the German Climate Agreement would not have been possible."

By employees of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, October 25, 2020 (H / t Dennis Ambler)

https://www.pik-potsdam.de/de/news/latest-news/president-steinmeier-201cwithout-people-like-edenhofer-the-paris-agreement-and-the-german-climate-deal-would- not possible. 201d

The decline in shellfish species on rocky coasts corresponds to climate-related changes

Two decades of data document a decline in mussels, barnacles and snails

A new study documents the decline of tidal species on Swan & # 39; s Island in the Gulf of Maine.

Press release, NAF, October 26, 2020

https://www.nsf.gov/discoveries/disc_summ.jsp?cntn_id=301502&WT.mc_id=USNSF_1

Link to paper: Decline of five tidal invertebrate species in the western North Atlantic over the past two decades

By Peter S. Petraitis and S. R. Dudgeon, Communication Biology, October 20, 2020

https://www.nature.com/articles/s42003-020-01326-0

"The recruitment of mussels falls by 15.7% per year, the recruitment of barnacles by 5.0% per year, …"

"Due to climate change, the Gulf of Maine has recently warmed faster than 99.9% of the world's oceans …"

(SEPP Comment: With a decrease of 15.7% per year, the recruitment of mussels would be less than 20% of the original after ten years and less than 4% of the original after 20 years. Based on these numbers, no new mussels form? A decline also occurred in the 1950s. Given the clam harvest in Massachusetts, the claim is unlikely. Could the decline be due to overfishing and an increase in European green crabs, an invasive species associated with crashes in shellfish populations?)

Questioning Orthodoxy

Sending words to do the work of deeds

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, October 28, 2020

Inexplicable political promises

Renewable energies don't solve the problem. Admittedly, Harrabin

From Paul Homewood, not many people know, October 26, 2020

(SEPP Comment: For those who believe in fairy tales, but are they Walt Disney or Grimms?)

Where did the ozone go?

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, October 28, 2020

“When it was recently discovered that the hole was growing again, the immediate response was that we need to enforce the Montreal Protocol. However, it has been in force since 1987 and has been successfully enforced on a global level for decades by mutual consent. Some people asked a different question: what if we don't understand the atmosphere as well as we thought? "

Don't let it snow

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, October 28, 2020

“But as we have noticed, and will do, until it gets as boring as shoveling snow in February, a theory in real science lives or dies by its predictive power. If you say winter is going to go, it has to go or you are wrong. "

To Paris!

We could really always have Paris

By Christopher Horner, The Pipeline, October 23, 2020

Aussie PM is defying pressure to set a net zero 2050 climate target

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, October 28, 2020

Japan's climate-neutral promise looks like a load of hot air

By Philip Patrick, The Spectator, UK 28 October 2020 (H / t GWPF)

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/japan-s-carbon-neutral-pledge-looks-like-a-load-of-hot-air

New Japanese Prime Minister pledges to fulfill China's Zero Carbon 2050 initiative

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, October 26, 2020

"My question, with a population density of 899 people per mile, where do you want to place the necessary infrastructure for renewable energy?"

(SEPP Comment: Why Should Physical Restrictions Interrupt Big Promises About Things Long After A Politician Is Dead?)

Change in US administrations

NOAA chief scientist sacked

From Paul Homewood, not many people know, October 30, 2020

"Craig McLean is not the 'top scientist' described in the mail. He is, in fact, an attorney who has served in administrative positions with NOAA for many years. As such, he has implemented the political agenda of Obama and previous presidents. "

The best NOAA scientist will be removed from his position after soliciting new Trump-appointed staff Compliance with the agency's integrity policy, which prohibits bringing research data into line with the political agenda

By Karen Ruiz, Daily Mail, Oct 29, 2020

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8888735/Trump-administration-fires-NOAA-scientist.html

(SEPP comment: See link directly above.)

Trump removes protection from the Tongass Forest and opens it for logging

By Rebecca Beitsch and Rachel Frazin, The Hill, October 28, 2020

https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/523145-trump-strips-protections-for-tongass-forest-opening-it-to-logging

Problems in Orthodoxy

Peter Foster: The IEA's solar spin cycle

I'm sorry, the world will still be powered primarily by fossil fuels in 2030

By Peter Foster, Financial Post, Canada, October 21, 2020

https://financialpost.com/opinion/peter-foster-the-ieas-solar-spin-cycle

“Now is the time to put more trust in the government, according to the IEA when the government's response to COVID has been a global mess. "A rise in well-designed energy policies is required to put the world on the path to a resilient energy system that can meet climate goals." But bad politics are not improved by positive adjectives, and desires are not accomplishments. "

Japan's climate-neutral promise looks like a load of hot air

By Philip Patrick, The Spectator, UK 28 October 2020 (H / t GWPF)

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/japan-s-carbon-neutral-pledge-looks-like-a-load-of-hot-air

I'm looking for common ground

Science and politics

By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. October 26, 2020

Philip Cross: The Sensible Approach to Climate Change

Adaptation plays a crucial role in any realistic and honest climate plan

By Philip Cross, Special for Financial Post, Financial Post (Canada) September 24, 2020

https://financialpost.com/opinion/philip-cross-the-sensible-approach-to-climate-change?mc_cid=b157bff4f1&mc_eid=da9b256360

Science, Politics and Evidence

Policy Making in Times of Crisis: How Diversity and Disagreement Can Help Guide Expert Advice Policy

By Alfred Moore, BMJ (formerly British Medical Journal), October 26, 2020

https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4039

Summary of GWPF:

Answer to the Australian Bushfire Commission

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, October 30, 2020

DOE successes are taking the American economy to new heights

By Dan Brouillette, Real Clear Energy, October 27, 2020

https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2020/10/27/doe_accomplishments_pushing_american_economy_to_new_heights_582132.html

Dan Brouillette is the US Secretary of Energy.

The victorious New Zealand Prime Minister is urged to apply Covid-19 lessons to the climate crisis

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, October 24, 2020

Review of current scientific articles from CO2 Science

The impact of increased CO2 on an important antioxidant in lettuce

Shimomura, M., Yoshida, H., Fujiuchi, N., Ariizumi, T. Ezura, H. and Fukuda, N. 2020. Continuous blue light and increased carbon dioxide concentration quickly increase the chlorogenic acid content in young lettuce plants. Scientia Horticulturae 272: 109550, doi.org/10.1016/j.scienta.2020.109550, October 30, 2020

http://www.co2science.org/articles/V23/oct/a13.php

“In light of the above, it appears that as the concentration of CO2 in the air increases in the years and decades to come, the chlorogenic acid content of lettuce will increase, producing more of this potent antioxidant for human consumption and healthcare. And that's good news worth reporting. "

The response of juvenile pink salmon to ocean acidification

A. Y. Frommel, J. Carless, B.P.V. Hunt. and Brauner, C. J. 2020. Physiological Resistance of Pink Salmon to Naturally Occurring Ocean Acidification. Conservation Physiology 8, DOI: 10.1093 / conphys / coaa059. October 28, 2020

http://www.co2science.org/articles/V23/oct/a12.php

“With all these considerations, Frommel et al. Write: "These results suggest that CO2 levels of up to 2000 µatm for two weeks at this stage of life in pink salmon are not associated with physiological impairments, as measured in this study, and only have a minor influence on simultaneous acute stress factors to have." Population groups with high levels of CO2 during their annual migration can be adapted to high levels of CO2. "

Investigation of the interactions between plants and herbivores under drought and heat stress

Xie, H., Shi, J., Shi, F., Xu, H., He, K. and Wang, Z. 2020. Fertility and defense against aphids in wheat exposed to a combination of heat and drought stress. Journal of Experimental Botany 71: 2713- 2722nd October 26th, 2020

http://www.co2science.org/articles/V23/oct/a11.php

Models v. Observations

Great Britain September Mean Temperatures Cooling Down. Also: Models suggest a hard, long winter

By Kirye and Pierre Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, October 24, 2020

Measurement problems – surface

The war on science

By Tony Heller, His Blog, October 26, 2020

https://newtube.app/user/TonyHeller/g9ovxWZ

"The algorithms are working as intended." – NOAA "

Was September 2020 the warmest September ever?

By David Whitehouse, GWPF, Oct 29, 2020

Changing weather

Amazingly cold and unusual snow in the early season … "Zeta" to land later in southeast Louisiana

Guest contribution by Paul Dorian, Perspecta, Via GWPF, October 28, 2020

Frost, record-breaking cold temperatures and strange weather features

By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, October 25, 2020

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2020/10/frost-record-breaking-cold- Temperatures.html

“If you want to see a picture that's a bit deceiving but a lot of fun, see below the current percentage of normal snow cover from the US Snotel network: TWO THOUSAND PERCENT NORMAL over NE Washington and almost 1000% normal over that North cascades. Values ​​that can cause die-hard skiers to run for their equipment! But such percentages mean little this early in the season, nor do the crazy low values ​​we observed in late spring. "

When is the foggyest time of year in the northwest?

By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, October 29, 2020

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2020/10/when-is-foggiest-time-of-year-in.html

"The clouds and storms have not moved in permanently and leave cloud-free conditions that allow good infrared cooling into space."

What Miami's Cold Lizards Can Say About Resilience to Climate Change

Press release, Washington University in St. Louis, October 20, 2020 (H / t WUWT)

https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2020-10/wuis-wcl101620.php

(SEPP Comment: Animals that survived the planet's warming and cooling are more tolerant of temperature changes than these researchers thought?)

Change climate

Antarctica is home to the oldest giant bird fossils, with a wingspan of 21 feet

By Staff Writers, Berkeley, CA (SPX) October 28, 2020

https://www.terradaily.com/reports/Antarctica_yields_oldest_fossils_of_giant_birds_with_21_foot_wingspans_999.html

Link to the paper: Earliest fossils of giant bony-toothed birds (Aves: Pelagornithidae) from the Eocene of Seymour Island in Antarctica

By Peter A. Kloess, Ashley W. Poust, and Thomas A. Stidham, Scientific Reports, October 26, 2020

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-75248-6

Changing seas

The EU's report on the disappearance of beaches was alarming and false, scientists say

By Staff, The Times, Oct 27, 2020

Link to the paper: Sandy coasts at risk of erosion

Michalis I. Vousdoukas et al. Climate change in nature, March 20, 2020

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-0697-0

Counter-argument: Sandy beaches can survive the rise in sea levels

By J.A.G. Cooper, Nature Climate Change, October 27, 2020

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-00934-2

Altering the cryosphere – land / sea ice

"Where's the sea ice?" Right where it was for most of the Holocene.

By David Middleton, WUWT, October 30, 2020

Where is the sea ice? 3 Reasons Why The Arctic Freeze Is Unusually Late And Why It's Important

By Mark Serreze, U.S. National Snow and Ice Data Center, The Conversation, Oct 28, 2020 (H / t WUWT)

https://theconversation.com/wheres-the-sea-ice-3-reasons-the-arctic-freeze-is-unseasonably-late-and-why-it-matters-148918

See link directly above.

3 more new studies show that the extent of modern Arctic sea ice in the past 10,000 years has never been greater

By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, October 29, 2020

Link to a study: Variability of surface waters and the large floods in the Beaufort Sea between Deglacial and Holocene

By Junjie Wu et al., Communications Earth & Environment, October 2, 2020

https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-020-00028-z

Irregular occurrence of glacial and interglacial climatic conditions

By Staff Writers, Bremerhaven, Germany (SPX), October 28, 2020

https://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Irregular_appearances_of_glacial_and_interglacial_climate_states_999.html

Link to the paper: Quaternary interglacials, defined by the ice distribution of the northern hemisphere outside Greenland

By Peter Köhler and Roderik S.W. van de Wal, Nature Communications, October 12, 2020

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-18897-5

The arrival of sea birds changed the Falkland Islands 5,000 years ago

By Brooks Hays, Washington DC (UPI) on October 23, 2020

https://www.spacedaily.com/reports/The_arrival_of_seabirds_transformed_the_Falkland_Islands_5000_years_ago_999.html

Change earth

Lost and found: geologists "revive" missing tectonic plate

Researchers locate long-debated plates in Canada using 3D map technology

Press release, NSF, October 27, 2020

https://www.nsf.gov/discoveries/disc_summ.jsp?cntn_id=301516&WT.mc_id=USNSF_1

Link to the paper: Raising the Resurrection Plate from a tectonic reconstruction of the plate in northwest North America since the early Cenozoic

By Spencer Fuston and Jonny Wu, GSA Bulletion, October 19, 2020

https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/gsa/gsabulletin/article-abstract/doi/10.1130/B35677.1/592051/Raising-the-Resurrection-plate-from-an-unfolded?redirectedFrom=fulltext

Acidic water

The future is now: Long-term research shows that ocean acidification on the Great Barrier Reef is increasing

Australian Institute of Marine Science press release October 28, 2020 (H / t Bernie Kepshire)

https://phys.org/news/2020-10-future-long-term-ocean-acidification-ramping.html

Link to an article: Progressive acidification of seawater on the continental shelf of the Great Barrier Reef

By Katharina Fabricius et al. Nature, October 27, 2020

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-75293-1

Link to the second article: Shifts of coral algae, macroalgae and coral youth in the Great Barrier Reef in connection with today's ocean acidification

From Joy Smith et al. (some of the same authors as above) Global Change Biology, February 12, 2020

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.14985

(SEPP Comment: As Janifer Marohasy has shown with recent photos of "dying" sections of the reef, the obituaries are premature.)

Agricultural problems and fear of famine

Another type of photosynthesis can save plants from climate change

By Brooks Hays, Washington DC (UPI) on October 23, 2020

https://www.seeddaily.com/reports/Different_type_of_photosynthesis_may_save_crops_from_climate_change_999.html

Link to unspecified paper, suggestion: Alternative CAM modes offer environmentally specific water-saving benefits in a leaf metabolism model

From Nadine Töpfer et al. The plant cell, October 21, 2020

http://www.plantcell.org/content/early/2020/10/22/tpc.20.00132

Lower standards

The BBC still does not understand the Paris Agreement

From Paul Homewood, not many people know, October 24, 2020

"The BBC is very much like the old Soviets – they lie so much about climate change that they end up believing their own lies:"

The National Academy of Sciences explains that global warming contributes to hot and cold storms

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, October 29, 2020

(SEPP Comment: The IPCC linguistic nonsense is used by the National Academy of Sciences. Medium trust does not replace conclusive. How about an unknown medium?)

BBC's Roger Harrabin criticized political activism masquerading as science.

By employees, GWPF, October 29, 2020

BBC’s Roger Harrabin criticised for political activism ‘masquerading as science’

"Mallen Baker, the former Greens co-chair, has criticized the BBC's Roger Harrabin for promoting" activism as politics disguised as science "while pretending to report expert evidence."

Communicate better with the public – use yellow (green) journalism?

Aerial images identify and track food security threats to millions of African farmers

By Staff Writers, Palmira, Colombia (SPX) October 23, 2020

https://www.seeddaily.com/reports/Aerial_images_detect_and_track_food_security_threats_for_millions_of_African_farmers_999.html

Link to the paper: Recognizing banana plants and their main diseases through aerial photography and machine learning methods: A case study in the DR Congo and the Republic of Benin

Michael Gomez Selvaraj et al. ISPRS Journal for Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing, November 2020

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0924271620302410?via%3Dihub

Another major breakthrough for solar energy

By Alex Kimani, Oil Price.com, October 20, 2020

https://oilprice.com/Alternative-Energy/Solar-Energy/Another-Major-Breakthrough-For-Solar-Energy.html

"The timing also seems perfect as solar will dominate the global electricity scene for the next several decades."

Björn Lomborg: Joe Biden's $ 2 trillion climate plan could fix the problem

By Björn Lomborg, New Zealand Herald, October 20, 2020

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/bjorn-lomborg-joe-bidens-us2-trillion-climate-plan-could-fix-it/KSJ5P3LEHLJQ6EOT7S256SZPGM/?mc_cid=b157bff4f1&mc_eid=da

(SEPP Comment: In his email, Lomborg said, "A low-cost idea in Biden's $ 2 trillion climate plan could finally fix global warming." That idea is more research and development into alternative energy sources. The Los Angeles Daily News got the correct emphasis; the New Zealand Herald did not.)

Ford GM Scientists Knew Emissions Cause Climate Change in the 1960s: Report

By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, October 26, 2020

https://thehill.com/policy/transportation/522762-automakers-knew-1960s-emissions-caused-climate-change-report

Half-measures do not save nature, scientists warn

By Marlowe Hood, Paris (AFP), October 22, 2020

https://www.terradaily.com/reports/Half-measures_wont_save_nature_scientists_warn_999.html

(SEPP comment: No link to study.)

Communicate better with the public – exaggerate or be vague?

Henderson the king of the climate

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, October 28, 2020

Henderson the climate king

"Well then. When "scientists say" it must be okay to cause catastrophe for billions through reckless arrogance. Just ask Dr. Strangelove. "

Dealing with climate change requires more struggle and less flight

By Dawn Stover, Bulletin of Nuclear Scientists, October 26, 2020

Dealing with climate change requires more fight and less flight

(SEPP Comment: According to the website, the group has been using the Doomsday Clock to predict nuclear risk for 75 years; now expanded to include Climate Change; Disruptive Technologies; COVID-19. As in the past, the Doomsday Clock is approaching midnight. Why believe it ?)

Communicate better with the public – make things up.

"Death sentence against nature": MPs who are accused of having turned European agricultural policy into an "annihilation machine"

"There is no reason to spend a third of the EU budget on industrial agriculture, which promotes the loss of biodiversity and exacerbates the climate crisis," says the critic

By Jane Dalton, Independent, October 23, 2020

https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/eu-agricultural-policy-cap-mep-vote-reform-farming-climate-change-extinction-b1226540.html

European science academies claim that economic growth is bad for the climate

By staff, GWPF & The Daily Telegraph, Via GWPF, October 30, 2020

Economic growth is bad for the climate, Europe’s Science Academies claim

The #ExxonKnew lie spreads to Motor City

By David Middleton, WUWT, October 28, 2020

Communicate better with the public – conduct a survey?

Skeptics with emissions

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, October 28, 2020

Sceptics with emissions

“It adds that for some reason people from southern Europe and Latin America are most likely to view climate change as a serious threat and that education plays a huge role in shaping attitudes towards climate change, people aged 16 or over were more likely than those with 8 years of training that climate change is a "very serious" threat. "

Communicate better with the public – use children for propaganda

Greta melts in response to the EU Parliament's vote in favor of the CAP. "We will not forget it"!

By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, October 23, 2020

Greta Melts Down In Reaction To EU Parliament Vote In Favor Of CAP. “We Won’t Forget”!

Communicate better with the public – protest

Thousands of climate activists appeal to Brussels to withdraw agricultural policy

By Catherine Bennett, France, October 24, 2020 (H / t GWPF)

https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20201025-tausende-der-Klimaaktivisten-appellieren-auf-brüssel-zu-mit-ziehender-Polizeip Politik

Extinction Rebellion front door David Attenborough after he criticized their extremism

The Staff, The Times, Via GWPF, October 27, 2020

Extinction Rebellion doorstep David Attenborough after he criticises their extremism

Extension of Orthodoxy

UN-linked plan shows US course on net CO2 emissions by 2050

By Rebecca Beitsch, The Hill, October 27, 2020

https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/522845-un-linked-plan-charts-us-course-to-net-zero-carbon-emissions-by

"A United Nations-affiliated initiative offers the US a possible roadmap to tackle climate change under a potential new administration."

"The Zero Carbon Action Plan (ZCAP), which was worked out by around 100 people from science and think tanks, would help the US achieve the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement and achieve CO2 emissions by 2050."

UN: Urgent climate action needed to prevent the Sahara from being greened

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, October 28, 2020

New website gives you the climate in your hand

By Staff Writers, Paris (ESA), October 22, 2020

https://www.terradaily.com/reports/New_website_puts_climate_in_your_hands_999.html

Link to the new ESA website

https://cfs.climate.esa.int/index.html#/?globe=SI12.67I41.83I25003000.00I360.00I-90.00I0.00I0.00I0.00II

“From a space point of view, users can see for themselves how atmospheric greenhouse gases rise, glaciers retreat and ice cover decrease. and explore forest fire patterns from the Arctic Circle to the Amazon rainforest to the Australian bush. "

Questioning European greenery

Sucked by Big Wind in the UK

By Rupert Darwall, Real Clear Energy, October 29, 2020

https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2020/10/29/suckered_by_big_wind_in_the_uk_582362.html

(SEPP Commentary: Explains why replacing coal and gas power plants with sun and wind increases the likelihood of a grid failure.)

Ask green elsewhere

The myth of the glorious renewable energy

By Vijay Jayaraj, WUWT, October 26, 2020

Link to UK study: The Cost of Offshore Wind Power: Blindness and Insight

By John Constable and Gordon Hughes, Briefings of Britain, 21 September 2020

The Costs of Offshore Wind Power: Blindness and Insight

What's wrong with wind and sun?

Video with Mark Mills, Prager U, September 14, 2020 (5.5 minutes) (H / t Paul deWitt)

Not green jobs

Green jobs? What about the industries we're destroying?

From Paul Homewood, not many people know, October 25, 2020

Green Jobs? What About The Industries We Are Destroying?

Funding problems

ANZ Bank demands the sale of CO2 emissions as a condition for business loans

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, October 29, 2020

Big hedge fund manager urges big funds to force companies to act against climate change

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, October 25, 2020

The political games continue

CFACT urges Joe Biden to "go a month without fossil fuels"

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, October 15, 2020

Litigation

A conservative Supreme Court will be better for climate action

By Charles Hernick, Real Clear Energy, October 25, 2020

https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2020/10/25/a_conservative_supreme_court_will_be_better_for_climate_action_581830.html

Regarding the climate, Amy Coney Barrett will be fair on law and science

By John Hart, C3, Oct 27, 2020

On Climate, Amy Coney Barrett Will Be Fair on the Law, and Science

Barrett speaks about the climate and the oil industry in written responses

By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Oct 21, 2020

https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/522052-barrett-punts-on-climate-oil-industry-recusals-in-written-responses

Subsidies and mandates forever

Wind PTC: Enough!

By Robert Bradley Jr.Master Resource on October 26, 2020

Wind PTC: Enough!

(SEPP Comment: Tax credits for the "infant industry" have been around for nearly 30 years, showing how difficult it is to get rid of tax credits long after there is no justification for them. The industry would collapse without them, showing how false the claims are by politicians who support the industry.)

Subsidies are blowing in the wind

By Alan Moran, Quadrant, AU, October 29, 2020

Subsidies are Blowing in the Wind

“One of the few pure wind chimes is Hepburn Wind. In 2020, the company generated energy sales of USD 111.5 per MWh, 37 percent of which came from subsidizing generation certificates. That level of subsidy can be seen elsewhere – US wind and solar subsidies are estimated at 50 percent. "

(SEPP Comment: No link to the estimate. The IEA's calculations on the social costs of carbon are, however, fictitious.)

Energy issues – Australia

Bargain! Solar panels valued at $ 2 billion supply SA for a full hour on Sunday in the spring!

By Jo Nova, Your Blog, October 27, 2020

http://joannenova.com.au/2020/10/bargain-2-billion-in-solar-panels-powers-sa-for-whole-hour-on-sunday-in-spring/

“The ABC claps and doesn't ask tough questions like how much will it cost? Will It Really Stop Storms? How many degrees cooler will the world be? Are there cheaper ways to reduce CO2 emissions? Does the reduction of artificial CO2 even change the atmospheric CO2 content? Will we ever be able to measure the benefits of this in any way? Are the Chinese laughing on the floor and laughing at our pagan stupidity? "

(SEPP Comment: Includes a chart of South Australia Power Generation by Source for October 11, 2020, another California duck.)

Energy issues – USA

Can America vote to ban fossil fuels?

By Lubos Motl, The Reference Frame, October 24, 2020

https://motls.blogspot.com/2020/10/may-america-vote-to-ban-fossil-fuels.html#more

Democrats' energy dilemma

By Joel Kotkin, Real Clear Energy, October 28, 2020

https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2020/10/27/democrats_energy_dilemma_582008.html

Maryland, North Carolina, Virginia, partner in offshore wind energy development

By Dominick Mastrangelo, The Hill, Oct 29, 2020

https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/523403-maryland-north-carolina-and-virginia-partnering-on-offshore-wind-energy-development

"The planners estimate the project will create up to 86,000 jobs, investments of $ 57 billion and economic output of up to $ 25 billion over the next ten years."

(SEPP Comment: Free for the consumer or taxpayer?)

Oil and Natural Gas – The Future or the Past?

Big data is essential for the oil and gas industry to become cleaner and more efficient

By Paul Steidler, Real Clear Energy, October 26, 2020

https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2020/10/26/big_data_essential_for_oil_and_gas_industry_to_become_cleaner_and_more_efficient_581993.html

Nuclear energy and fears

Brussels will not stand in the way of new nuclear power plants, says EU climate chief

By Frédéric Simon, EURACTIV, October 26, 2020 (H / t GWPF)

Brussels ‘won’t stand in the way’ of new nuclear plants, says EU climate chief

Alternative, green ("clean") sun and wind

The futility of “renewable” energy in two simple diagrams

By David Middleton, WUWT, October 29, 2020

Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy – Others

Geothermal energy is about to have a major eruption

"A technical problem that, when solved, solves energy."

By David Roberts, Vox October 21, 2020 (H / t Bernie Kepshire)

https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2020/10/21/21515461/renewable-energy-geothermal-egs-ags-supercritical

Alternative, green (“clean”) energy – storage

Analysis suggests that Elon Musk's vision of a battery-powered society remains an impractical fantasy

By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, October 30, 2020

Analysis Suggests Elon Musk’s Vision Of A Battery-Powered Society Remains An Unworkable Fantasy

Designing batteries for easier recycling could prevent an impending e-waste crisis

By Zheng Chen and Darren Tan, The Conservation, Via WUWT, October 25, 2020

Alternative, green (“clean”) vehicles

Reality check on the electric car

Guest contribution by Richard Fowler, CEO Howard Electric Cooperative, MO, WUWT, October 30, 2020

Common and unclean: electric cars with child labor in Africa

By Steve Milloy, Junk Science.com, October 19, 2020

Mean and Unclean: Electric Cars Powered by Child Labor in Africa

(SEPP Commentary: Photos of Cobalt Mines in the Democratic Republic of the Congo)

Battery problems continue to plague electric cars … BMW orders “large-scale” recall of plug-in hybrids

Explosive car batteries? BMW remembers a large number of electric hybrid cars

From A.R. Göhring (translated by P. Gosselin), No Tricks Zone, October 27, 2020

Battery Issues Continue To Plague Electric Cars…BMW Orders “Large-Scale” Recall Of Plugin Hybrids

Carbon schemes

CCS can quickly reduce emissions in sectors where there are few other ways to decarbonize, EFI / Stanford

EFI, Stanford Team Publishes California Carbon Capture and Storage Action Plan, Press Release, Stanford University, October 22, 2020 (H / t WUWT)

https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2020-10/su-ccr102220.php

Link to report: A California Carbon Capture and Storage Action Plan: Opportunities, Challenges, and Solutions

By contributors: Energy Futures Initiative and Stanford University, October 25, 2020

https://sccs.stanford.edu/sites/g/files/sbiybj7741/f/efi-stanford-ca-ccs-full-rev1.vf-10.25.20.pdf

California dreams

Have you heard that California is fighting wildfires by banning gasoline cars?

The governor's solution is expensive and less effective than other approaches to climate change and forest fires.

By Björn Lomborg, Dallas News, October 1, 2020

https://www.dallasnews.com/opinion/commentary/2020/10/01/did-you-hear-the-one-about-california-fighting-wildfires-by-banning-gasoline-cars/?mc_cid=b157bff4f1&mc_eid = da9b256360

Barriers and Mandatory Burn Enablers for Wildfire Management in California

By Rebecca K. Miller, Field and Mach, Sustainable Nature, January 20, 2020

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-019-0451-7

BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE

If we paint all our cities white, will we get more snow?

By Jo Nova, Your Blog, October 24, 2020

http://joannenova.com.au/2020/10/if-we-paint-all-our-cities-white-will-we-get-more-snow/

ITEMS

Pandemic is a ray of light for the solar industry

Higher utility bills, outages, and low interest rates help private solar companies sell their products to homeowners

By Jinjoo Lee, WSJ, Oct 28, 2020

https://www.wsj.com/articles/pandemic-is-ray-of-light-for-solar-industry-11603882801

TWTW-Zusammenfassung: Der Reporter schreibt, dass er nicht in gleicher Weise an der Last der Aufrechterhaltung eines zuverlässigen Systems beteiligt ist, das bei Bedarf funktioniert:

„Zwischen Covid-19 und Naturkatastrophen warf Mutter Natur den Amerikanern 2020 einen Curveball zu. Solarunternehmen schlagen ihn aus dem Park.

„Sonnenkollektoren und Batteriesysteme sind für Menschen, die viel mehr Zeit in ihren Häusern verbringen, weniger attraktiv und weniger sicher, ob das Licht an bleibt. In der Zwischenzeit waren die Zinssätze nie niedriger, was es für kapitalintensive Unternehmen wie Sunrun RUN -4,13% und Sunnova Energy International NOVA -5,87% billiger macht, Mittel zu beschaffen.

„Die Pandemie war anfangs störend, da das Marketing von Tür zu Tür viel schwieriger wurde. Laut einem vierteljährlichen Bericht der Solar Energy Industries Association und von Wood Mackenzie gingen die Solaranlagen in Wohngebieten im zweiten Quartal sequenziell um 23% zurück, was hauptsächlich auf Vor-Ort-Bestellungen zurückzuführen war, die den Verkauf und die Installation von Systemen einschränkten.

„Aber der vorübergehende Rückschlag war wahrscheinlich das, was die Branche brauchte, um einige dringend benötigte Änderungen zu beschleunigen. Sowohl Sunrun als auch Sunnova stellten in ihren jüngsten Gewinnaufrufen fest, dass sie den Umsatz auf ein digitales Modell verlagert hatten. Dies ist auf lange Sicht wahrscheinlich positiv, da digitales Marketing kosteneffizienter ist als von Haus zu Haus zu gehen, so Sophie Karp, Analystin für Aktienanalyse bei KeyBanc Capital Markets. Die Gemeinkosten, einschließlich der Kosten für die Kundenakquise, waren im Laufe der Jahre im Verhältnis zu den Solarpreisen für Wohnimmobilien gestiegen.

„Der Verkauf von Solarenergie auf dem Dach ist auch dann einfacher, wenn potenzielle Kunden sich ihrer steigenden Stromrechnungen bewusster sind. Seit Beginn der Pandemie Anfang dieses Jahres mussten die Amerikaner den Stromverbrauch in ihre Häuser verlagern. Im August stiegen die Einzelhandelsumsätze mit Strom für Privathaushalte gegenüber dem Vorjahr um 5,8%, während der gewerbliche und der industrielle Sektor nach Angaben der US-amerikanischen Energy Information Administration einen Rückgang von 6,7% bzw. 9,3% verzeichneten.

„Der Aufkleberschock scheint den Web-Verkehr für private Solaranbieter angekurbelt zu haben: Der durchschnittliche monatliche Verkehr für Sunrun stieg in diesem Jahr im Vergleich zu 2019 um 111%. Sunnova und Vivint Solar verzeichneten nach Angaben von SimilarWeb Zuwächse von 48% bzw. 20%.

„Während die steigende Arbeitslosigkeit durchweg Bedenken hinsichtlich der Kriminalität auslöste, ist die Solarenergie in Wohngebieten etwas abgeschirmt, da die meisten Solaranbieter verlangen, dass die FICO-Werte der Kunden über 650 liegen, so ein kürzlich veröffentlichter Bericht von BloombergNEF. Hausbesitzer neigen dazu, Solarzahlungen Vorrang einzuräumen, da sie durch dieses Produkt Geld sparen, heißt es in dem Bericht.

„Solarunternehmen sehen die Möglichkeit, Batteriespeicher als Add-On für Solardächer in Orten wie Kalifornien zu verkaufen, wo es aufgrund von Waldbränden immer noch zu Ausfällen kommt. In einigen Fällen können sie ihre Dienste als Netzdienstleister an Versorgungsunternehmen weitergeben und so große Pools von Solar- und Speichersystemen auf dem Dach koordinieren, um das Netz auszugleichen. Sunrun sagte in seiner Gewinnaufforderung für das zweite Quartal, dass es mehr als 50 Millionen US-Dollar in vergebenen oder fortgeschrittenen Phasen solcher Aufträge hatte.

„Trotz des starken Rückgangs im zweiten Quartal prognostiziert BloombergNEF, dass die Solaranlagen in Wohngebieten in diesem Jahr im Vergleich zu 2019 wachsen werden.“ Die niedrigen Installationszahlen (früher in der Pandemie) spiegelten nicht die Nachfrage nach Solaranlagen wider. Es war eher ein Spiegelbild der Verlangsamung der Genehmigungen “, sagte Tara Narayanan, US-amerikanische Solaranalystin bei BNEF. "Es gibt tatsächlich einen ziemlich starken Rückstand an Projekten, die auf Genehmigungen warten, und wir erwarten einen Anstieg im Jahr 2021."

Der Artikel endet damit, wie rosig Solarenergie nach der Wahl sein kann.

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