Weekly Recap of Local weather and Vitality Information # 436


The week that was: 2020-12-19 (December 19, 2020)

Presented by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)

The science and environmental project

Quote of the week: "We don't know what gets us into trouble. We know for sure that this is not the case." – Mark Twain (H / t Ron Clutz)

Number of the week: minus 70 ° C (minus 94 ° F)


By Ken Haapala, President of the Science and Environment Policy Project (SEPP)

Modest change: For several weeks, TWTW has been discussing the most recent work by William van Wijngaarden and William Happer on the greenhouse effect and the expansion of this work by Howard Hayden. This was coupled with a surface temperature record review by Richard Lindzen and John Christy, who used the BEST series of surface temperature anomalies from nearly 3000 stations with at least 100 years of continuous observation to present a series of graphs. These graphs contain annual temperature anomalies, seasonal temperature anomalies, and the averages (means) of these data sets. As Lindzen and Christy say:

“To obscure the fact that the global averages are small remnants of large numbers whose accuracy is questionable, the general presentations plot the global mean anomalies without the scatter points and expand the scale to make the changes appear large.

Lindzen and Christy show that the temperature range of the various stations is extremely large compared to the small fluctuations in the average global temperature. Compared to periods of glaciation, which were interrupted by short warm periods, the climate in the past 150 years has been favorable, with only one positive warming. They claim that based on the physical evidence used by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and its supporters, the fear of dangerous warming from CO2 is based on a statistical interpretation of the evidence coupled with a highly questionable chain of interpretations. The line of argument is extremely weak. To call the evidence "robust" and the science "done" is absurd and the exact opposite of accepted scientific method.

Ross McKitrick and Christy also tested what is available in the new global climate models used by the United Nations IPCC to produce the upcoming United Nations IPCC Assessment Report (AR-6) against atmospheric temperature trends. They used three types of data sets, each with four different data sets, to identify atmospheric temperature trends. They also calculated the range of each type to be within two standard deviations of the mean. Because the results of a global climate model vary depending on the initial conditions, McKitrick and Christy calculated the range of results from the models to be within two standard deviations.

They found that the range of estimates from the climate models with 95% probability of the mean temperature trend in general exceeds the range of actual atmospheric temperature trends with a 95% probability of the mean temperature trend. Generally there is no overlap. Statistically, the range of estimated temperatures overestimates the range of actual temperatures. There is no statistical similarity between model results and actual measurements.

Using physical evidence, the above researchers have shown that the earth does not heat up dangerously, that increasing the greenhouse effect by adding carbon dioxide does not cause dangerous warming, and that global climate models greatly overestimate the warming of the atmosphere where the greenhouse effect occurs a.

On December 12, António Guterres, the ninth Secretary-General of the United Nations, urged world leaders at the 2020 Climate Ambition Summit to mark the 5th anniversary of the adoption of the Paris Agreement, which the United Nations hopes to generate $ 100 billion a year "To explain a" climate emergency ":

"Today I call on all heads of state and government worldwide to declare a state of emergency for the climate in their countries until CO2 neutrality is achieved."

“We need significant cuts now to cut global emissions by 45 percent by 2030 compared to 2010. This needs to be fully reflected in the revised and reinforced nationally determined submissions that Paris signatories are required to submit in time for next year's COP26 in Glasgow. "

The question is, what physical evidence does the United Nations need to have in order to make such a statement? Based on recent publications, this evidence is examined below. See links under Challenging Orthodoxy and Expanding Orthodoxy.


The surface: In the past few months there has been a deluge of papers defending the United Nations IPCC findings and claims that increasing carbon dioxide (CO2) will cause dangerous global warming. Note that the term earth is used here because there is generally no discussion in the papers about the atmosphere, which is important in understanding the greenhouse effect as it is there. TWTW prefers the term globe, which includes the atmosphere.

Among the many articles recently briefly reviewed by TWTW, there are two that were published this month:

Perspectives on the reproducibility and reproducibility of data in paleoclimate and climate science

By Rosemary Bush, Andrea Dutton, Michael Evans, Rich Loft, and Gavin A. Schmidt, MIT Press, December 16, 2020



An assessment of the earth's climate sensitivity using multiple lines of evidence

From S.C. Sherwood et al. Review of Geophysics, December 2020


The first paper contains an extensive list of references. The summary says:

“This paper summarizes the current state of reproducibility and reproducibility in the fields of climate and paleoclimate research, including a brief history of its development and application in climate science, new and recent approaches to improving reproducibility and reproducibility, and challenges. Recommendations to address these challenges include: Developing searchable, automatically updated, interconnected public paleoclimate repositories with multiple archives for raw and processed digital datasets; cross-center standardized code base cases, improved data storage techniques and a focus on replicability for storage and access to climate simulations; and supporting community development and awareness of Findable, Accessible, Interoperable and Reusable (FAIR) principles through funding agencies and publishers. This paper is largely based on presentations by a group of researchers in May 2018 to the Committee on Reproducibility and Reproducibility in Science, which is part of the National Academies of Science, Technology and Medicine. The comments and recommendations made here are consistent with those in the Consensus Study Report on Reproducibility and Reproducibility in Science (2019). "

The introduction begins with:

"Reproducibility and reproducibility are seen as central tenets of the scientific process and are central to the creation and testing of scientific theories and models of how the world works (Goodman et al., 2016; Stodden et al., 2016; National Academies, 2019; Powers and Hampton, 2019). Our collective understanding of the mechanisms of Earth's climate, the history of the ancient climates (paleoclimate) on Earth, and all the predictions we can make about future climates is based on the basic principles of the scientific method: hypotheses that are not refuted by empirical observations, the Be transparent Studies have been reported that have undergone external review and re-testing, creating a feedback cycle that collects information and seeks consistency (Wilson, 1999). However, the earth's climate is enormously complex, which means that scientific studies on climate and paleoclimate are also becoming increasingly complex. Some recent examples of this growing complexity are the work of the Past Global Changes Consortium, which studies the last 2000 years of Earth's climate history (PAGES2k), the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project of the World Climate Research Program, which is currently in its 6th phase (CMIP6) work the international MARGO working group on the reconstruction of sea surface temperatures (Kucera et al., 2006), the International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) as well as the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS) and NCEP North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR), both by NOAA hosted … "

From this one can conclude that all "official climate science" in the USA is geared towards ensuring reproducibility and reproducibility. Both are outstanding and necessary goals, but they are not enough to ensure high quality physics. A student of Richard Feynman might ask what about the rest of the scientific method, like testing model results against all physical data, including that presented by McKitrick and Christy?

For example, many earlier cultures and civilizations adopted a geocentric universe centered on the earth. It made sense. Human feet were firmly placed on the ground and there was no constant wind from possible earth rotation. It served the purposes of early seafarers, including the Polynesians who made long journeys based on observations of the stars and the surrounding area, all of which were supported by oral traditions. However, it would not be advisable to use a geocentric universe for space travel. Similarly, we now have a very different approach to climate change than what emerges from climate history or traditional climate researchers' approaches to predicting the future.

To emphasize the need to further test all relevant data, one can examine the paper referred to in the above report “Recent Global Warming As Confirmed by AIRS”. Co-author is Gavin A. Schmidt, Director of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (NASA-GISS) at NASA.

The paper is interesting because it uses the trend in surface temperature measured by the AIRS instruments on satellites. AIRS is the abbreviation for an infrared sounder with high spectral resolution, which was started in 2002 with the Earth Observing System (EOS) on the Aqua satellite. This article compares the AIRS database with the surface temperatures in the NASA GISS surface database (GISTEMP). It is important to note that the GISTEMP database has only been independently verified since 2003. It cannot be assumed that previous adjustments to the database were justified. Thus, claims that measurements made as early as 1880 are NOT independently confirmed (verified).

Apparently the AIRS database is used to estimate temperatures in large areas where there are no thermometers, such as Antarctica. However, these dates cannot properly begin until 2003, not earlier, as is often stated by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), a parent organization of the IPCC.

The trend from 2003 to 2017 for the various surface data sets is interesting. For AIRS it is 0.24 ± 0.12 ° C / decade; for GISTEMP it is 0.22 ± 0.13 ° C / decade; and for HadCRUT4 it is 0.17 ± 0.13 ° C / decade. (HadCRUT4 is the fourth version of the UK Hadley Center and Climatic Research Unit's temperature record.) Given natural variations, these values, while causing concern, are certainly not cause for panic sufficient to destroy the power grid in the United States Kingdom. Much less, they give no evidence that the UN is declaring a climate emergency.

It is especially important to know that despite claims made by the United Nations and its IPCC papers discussing changes in temperature, they do not necessarily mean that CO2 is the main culprit. The claim that this and that year was the hottest ever on the surface can only be traced back to 2003, since before that the distribution of the temperature recording stations was sparse and inadequate.

The second paper, which is lengthy, raises some of the major problems with the current approach to climate science as accepted by orthodoxy. It will be discussed in the next TWTW (January 2nd), which will begin a comparison of the evidence used by the United Nations IPCC and its supporters and the evidence of the skeptics who claim that the increasing greenhouse effect is not dangerous to humans or the environment . In fact, they will have positive effects on plant health and growth. See links under Defense of Orthodoxy.


Resurfacing corals: Peter Ridd (who has been charged by his university on allegations that the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) in Australia is not dead or cannot repair itself) and environmentalist Jim Steele have informative articles on coral: Ridd writes about the GBR and Steele writes about corals in the Caribbean. Your comments are important to remember when alarmists declare corals are dead! Ridd's statements include:

"The spectacular death of corals may make it easy to convince the world that the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) is in trouble, but it's even more powerful when it can be said that it never happened before 1960." For the GBR, we knew very little before 1960, so it's easy to say that this spectacular death was unknown before the 1960s. "

“The science of GBR is therefore a critical question for the people of northeast Australia. Mistakes have consequences and there is no excuse for negligence, unverified methodology, or insufficient review. "

This is how Ridd sums up a problem with modern environmental protection that is wrongly called science.

Separately, Steele writes:

“Mortality from bleaching also decreased coral cover. The bleaching of unusually warm temperatures in summer 2005 and in El Nino 1998 is often highlighted. Surprisingly, deadly cold weather bleaching is rarely mentioned. In January 2010, cold weather killed 11.5 percent of coral along the Florida Keys, 20 times worse than the 2005 warm weather mortality rate. Understanding why both warm and cold weather cause bleaching explains how Corals have successfully adapted to constantly changing climates over the past 220 million years. "

Given that some people describe the current warm period as unprecedented, the changing corals show a better innate understanding of climate change than many people.

While reviewing Ridd's new book, a journalist writes:

“A common form of communication for others writing about the reef is to simply say things about 'The Science'. They do not concern themselves with the reasons or the scientific logic / analysis supporting their claims. It is important that they do not expand an area where the results of a preferred research paper can be shown to be in doubt. Peter Ridd does the opposite, and he does it with direct language and in a clear manner. "

See the links under Challenging Orthodoxy and Challenging Orthodoxy.


Flickering fires? Given the headlines and claims made by alarmists like the Governor of California, one would think that if mankind is not destroyed by man-made global warming, global warming forests, prairies, and forest fires would destroy mankind. On November 11, 2014, the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts launched the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service, which contains carbon dioxide. An article on Phys.org on December 14th. specified:

"A year of data collected by the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) showed that carbon emissions from fires should be lower than in previous years and that 2020 was one of the lowest years for active fires in the world."

Even in the past 6 years, the fires of 2020 were not "unprecedented". See links under Finding a Common Ground.


Carbon pollution? In an absurd gesture of political correctness, an outdoor apparel maker declined a request from a company to print its logo on shirts, a common practice given that the company was a service provider to the oil and gas industry. The company's response was a model of common sense versus political fashions. It included:

“Oil and natural gas are the two most important resources that humankind can use to produce inexpensive and reliable energy. The work of my company and our industry in the broader sense enables people to have a quality of life and life expectancy that were unfathomable a century ago.

The benefits of inexpensive and reliable energy are too numerous to mention in total. Here are some key highlights:

The lifespan and quality of life have increased dramatically over the past 150 years, which is made possible by access to abundant energy. Inexpensive and reliable energy enables life-saving technologies. For example, the new Pfizer vaccine must be stored at -70 ° C. This would not be possible without inexpensive and reliable energy. American industry depends on inexpensive and reliable energy in order to be successful and competing internationally. More than a billion people worldwide today live without access to electricity. As a result, these people live shorter, more difficult and more dangerous than necessary. The solution to this problem is cheaper and more reliable power, not less.

Hydrocarbons are the sole source of supply for the vast majority of our inexpensive and reliable energy needs. The oil and gas industry is essential to human thriving and there is no inexpensive and reliable alternative:

Oil and natural gas are the only viable sources of inexpensive, reliable energy today. Wind, sun and many other alternatives suffer from an intermittent problem that has not yet been resolved. "

One wonders how many leisurely Westerners would go on fashionable hikes to Antarctica, the Himalayas, or even ski without hydrocarbon equipment? See links under the bottom line.


Number of the week: Minus 70 ° C (minus 94 ° F) Pfizer vaccine for COVID-19 must be stored at minus 70 ° C. It uses messenger RNA, which deteriorates quickly. Special containers are made to be shipped and delivered. The Ebola vaccine also required ultra-cold storage. The coolant is dry ice, solid CO2 with a temperature of – 78 ° C. See links under Social Benefits of Carbon Dioxide



Challenging Orthodoxy – NIPCC

Climate change covered II: Physics

Idso, Carter and Singer, lead authors / editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013

Summary: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/CCR/CCR-II/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf

Climate change reconsidered II: Biological effects

Idso, Idso, Carter and Singer, Lead Authors / Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014

Summary: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf

Climate Change Covered II: Fossil Fuels

By multiple authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates and Singer eds., Non-Governmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019

Free download:

Why Scientists Disagree with Global Warming

The NIPCC Scientific Consensus Report

By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter and S. Fred Singer, Non-Governmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), November 23, 2015

Free download:


Nature, not human activity, rules the climate

S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008

Global Sea Level Rise: An Analysis of the Data

By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Policy Brief, May 20, 2019

Challenging Orthodoxy

Dependence of the earth's thermal radiation on the five most common greenhouse gases

By W. A. ​​van Wijngaarden and W. Happer, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics, submitted June 4, 2020


Link to the pre-release version: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03098.pdf

CO2 and Climate: A Tutorial

By Howard "Cork" Hayden, Energy Advocate, accessed November 27, 2020

The Global Mean Temperature Anomaly Record

How it works and why it is misleading

By Richard S. Lindzen and John R. Christy, CO2 Coalition, December 2020

Penetrating warming distortion in tropospheric CMIP6 layers

By R. McKitrick and J. Christy, Earth and Space Science, July 15, 2020


Bad science is not a victimless crime

By Peter Ridd, Quadrant, December 19, 2020

Preventing Ecosystem Collapse: Pt 2 Caribbean Coral

By Jim Steele, Landscapes and Cycles, accessed December 19, 2020


Former Environment Senator Fritz Vahrenholt: "We are threatened by a dramatic loss of prosperity"

By employees, Hamburger Abendblatt, Via GWPF, December 14, 2020 (H / t John Shanahan)

"I agree with Norbert Bolz: prophets of doom have always been the most virulent enemies of the Enlightenment."

Dozens of scientists reveal that most of the planet is colder today than most of the past 8,000 years

By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, December 18, 2020

Dr. Sebastian Lüning's admirable and outstanding reference map of the Medieval Warm Period shows hundreds of climatic reconstructions for this period. There we find numerous studies that show that today's climate is nothing unusual compared to 1000 years ago.

Here are 80 graphs from 58 peer-reviewed articles showing the same thing.

The huge data set that these papers represent is not going to go away.

Defend Orthodoxy

Harvard Data Science Review examines reproducibility and reproducibility in science

Press release, MIT Press, December 16, 2020 (H / t WUWT)


Link to an article: Perspectives on the reproducibility and reproducibility of data in paleoclimate and climate science

By Rosemary Bush, Andrea Dutton, Michael Evans, Rich Loft, and Gavin A. Schmidt, MIT Press, December 16, 2020


The recent global warming has been confirmed by AIRS.

Von Susskind, J., Schmidt, G., Lee, J. and Iredell, L. (Environmental Research Letters (2019). Https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aafd4e

An assessment of the earth's climate sensitivity using multiple lines of evidence

From S.C. Sherwood et al. Review of Geophysics, December 2020


The green recovery must end the domination of GDP, argue economists from Cambridge and the United Nations

By staff, Cambridge University, WUWT, December 14, 2020

Questioning Orthodoxy

Adaptation: It's a difficult concept

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, December 16, 2020

"Can a species that forgets to press the" stop the incoming tide "button on the large, expensive barrier built for one purpose and one purpose, namely to stop the tide, really be trusted to break the earth's climate? newly developed?"

Climate ambitions worse than climate change

By William R. Hawkins, American thinker, December 18, 2020


Peter Ridd's heretical manifesto

David Mason-Jones, Quadrant, December 18, 2020

Cold spots, not hotspots, are the key to rapid biodiversity

Places where there aren't many species offer the opportunity for quick diversification

Research News, NSF, December 14, 2020


Link to the paper: The development of a tropical biodiversity hotspot

By Michael Harvey et al., AAAS Science, December 11, 2020


No, climate change is not driving birds north.

From Paul Homewood, not many people know, December 18, 2020

To Paris!

How America's “useful idiots” enable China to ignore environmental and human rights reforms

By Richard Rahn, Washington Times, December 14, 2020


“Predictably, the mass media attacked President Trump when he withdrew from the Paris Agreement without thinking about why the Chinese and some other major polluters willingly signed up. While many of the signatories to the agreement have increased their CO2 emissions and pollutants, the US has actually reduced its emissions. The deal would put the US at a disadvantage vis-à-vis China and others. "

Change in US administrations

Revision of federal climate science

Recommendations for the next President of the United States

By John Podesta, Bidisha Bhattacharyya, and Bianca Majumder, Center for American Progress, December 15, 2020 (H / t Dennis Ambler)

“The next administration should ask NASA and the NSF to lead major international scientific expeditions to ensure that the United States resumes its position as the leading producer of climate science. International cooperation in ocean sampling and ice sheet study are two critical areas in which US leadership can make important new advances. "

Biden taps former EPA boss Gina McCarthy as a domestic “climate star”: reports

By Rebecca Beitsch, The Hill, December 15, 2020


Biden appoints climate alarmists to all top environmental and energy positions

By Myron Ebell, CEI, December 18, 2020


Progressive refusal to face reality: climate change

By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, December 12, 2020


"That's fine, it's all a fairy tale now."

The case against the sabotage of Biden's Paris Agreement plans

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, December 15, 2020

Social benefits of carbon dioxide

Why does Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine need to be kept colder than Antarctica?

By Selena Simmons-Duffin, NPR Shots, Nov 17, 2020


The greening of the earth is approaching its limit

By Staff Writers, Madrid, Spain (SPX) December 14, 2020


Link to the paper: Recent global decline in the effects of CO2 fertilization on photosynthesis of vegetation

Songhan Wang et al. AAAS Science, December 11, 2020


(SEPP comment: When a critical resource is no longer severely restricted and other resources appear limited, is the first resource approaching its usage limits? No! See link directly below.)

Greening schmeening

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, December 16, 2020

“One nasty aspect of climate alarmism is that warming is said to be a major ecological catastrophe and that warming is said to be coming our way. So there should be mass extinction, desertification, and misfortune. Still, over the past half century, the planet has dramatically greened itself and agriculture in poorer countries has increased dramatically, almost as if plants like warmth and CO2 were just as much as their ancestors when it was much warmer, the CO2 levels were much higher and giant beasts roamed lush landscapes. "

Problems in Orthodoxy

Aussie Resources Minister: UN Climate Emergency Call for "Inconsequential Grand Statement"

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, December 15, 2020

China expands its fleet of coal-fired power plants by 10%

By employees, Bloomberg, Via GWPF, December 16, 2020

"Chinese government utilities are building coal longevity by building new coal-fired power plants whose fleets are expected to grow by around 10% by 2025."

I'm looking for common ground

Below average fires in 2020 despite monster fires: EU

Von Mitarbeitern, Phys.org, 14. Dezember 2020


Trockene Bedingungen über Kalifornien: Was werden die Auswirkungen sein?

Von Cliff Mass, Wetterblog, 15. Dezember 2020


Wissenschaft, Politik und Evidenz

Von Covid bis Climate übergibt Großbritannien die Politik an die Nichtauserwählten

Durch den Klimawandel erhält der Verwaltungsstaat mehr Macht.

Von Rupert Darwall, Real Clear Energy, 14. Dezember 2020


Rückblick auf aktuelle wissenschaftliche Artikel von CO2 Science

Die kombinierten Auswirkungen der Versauerung und Erwärmung des Ozeans auf den australasischen Larvenschnapper

McMahon, S.J., Parsons, D.M., Donelson, J.M., Pether, S.M.J. und Munday, P.L. 2020. Erhöhte Temperatur und CO2 wirken sich positiv auf das Wachstum und das Überleben des australasischen Larvenschnappers aus. Marine Environmental Research 161: 105054, doi.org/10.1016/j.marenvres.2020.105054. December 18, 2020


Vier Jahrzehnte Inselgebiet ändern sich in Tuvalu

Kench, P. S., Ford, M. R. und Owen, S. D. 2018. Muster des Inselwechsels und der Persistenz bieten alternative Anpassungswege für Atollnationen. Nature Communications 9: 605, DOI: 10.1038 / s41467-018-02954-1, 16. Dezember 2020


„In ihren Kommentaren zu diesen Beobachtungen sagen die Autoren, dass sie die Wahrnehmung des Inselverlusts in Frage stellen und zeigen, dass Inseln dynamische Merkmale sind, die im nächsten Jahrhundert als Wohnorte bestehen bleiben.“ Und das ist wirklich eine gute Möglichkeit, die Lächerlichkeit von Klimaalarmisten anzuerkennen Darstellungen von Tuvalu – seine Inseln ertrinken nicht vor einem unwirtlichen Anstieg des Meeresspiegels und seine Bewohner sind nicht in der Gefahr, Klimaflüchtlinge zu werden. "

Drei Jahrzehnte Veränderung der Unkrautflora in der Türkei

Özkan, R.Y. und Tepe, I. 2020. Veränderungen der Unkrautflora in Getreidefeldern in den letzten 31 Jahren in Van, Türkei. Pakistan Journal of Botany 52: 2003-2009, 14. Dezember 2020


„Die Faktoren, die diese rückläufigen Trends bei der Anzahl und Dichte der Unkräuter insgesamt antreiben, sind nach Ansicht der Autoren möglicherweise auf eine„ Änderung der Anbau- und Schädlingsbekämpfungstechniken sowie der klimatischen Faktoren “zurückzuführen. Leider war ihre Studie nicht darauf ausgelegt, die Legitimität und Stärke dieser potenziellen Faktoren zu diskriminieren. Die Daten zeigen jedoch, dass die steigenden Temperaturen und die atmosphärischen CO2-Werte der letzten drei Jahrzehnte keine Unkrautapokalypse ausgelöst haben. Und selbst wenn dies dazu neigte, war die Anwendung einfacher Managementtechniken (Anbau, Düngung und / oder Herbizidanwendung) mehr als ausreichend, um solchen Impulsen entgegenzuwirken und die hier beobachteten Unkrautanzahl- und Dichteabnahmen zu erzielen. "

Modelle v. Beobachtungen

Wissenschaftler, die sagen (1)

Von John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, 16. Dezember 2020

„(John) Christy bestand darauf, dass sie sich damit befassen (in einem früheren IPCC-Bewertungsbericht), und vergruben daher in einer Online-Beilage ein Diagramm, das zeigt, dass Modelle viel zu viel Erwärmung zeigen. Und die neuesten Modelle, die herauskommen, anstatt das Bias-Problem zu beheben, werden immer schlimmer. Wissenschaftler sagen das nicht immer, aber die Natur wird das letzte Wort haben. "


Erwarten Sie weniger, aber zerstörerischere tropische Wirbelstürme

Pressemitteilung, Institut für Grundlagenforschung, 16. Dezember 2020 (H / t WUWT)


„Ein Forscherteam des südkoreanischen IBS-Zentrums für Klimaphysik (ICCP) an der Pusan ​​National University hat kürzlich eine der rechenintensivsten und detailliertesten Simulationen zur globalen Erwärmung durchgeführt. Das globale Klimamodell erfasst kleinräumige atmosphärische und ozeanische Prozesse mit einem horizontalen Maßstab von 25 km bzw. 10 km. "

Kein Link zum Papier

The melting of the Greenland ice sheet could lead to a sea level rise of 18 centimeters by 2100

Press Release by University de Liege, Dec 15, 2020 (H/t Bernie Kepshire)


Link to paper: Greater Greenland Ice Sheet contribution to global sea level rise in CMIP6

By Stefan Hofer, Nature Communications, Dec 15, 2020


“Initial results of the CMIP6 GCM model intercomparison project have revealed a greater 21st century temperature rise than in CMIP5 models.”

(SEPP Comment: Rather than test the dubious models, extend the claims by using fictionalized databases and assumptions as in the extreme IPCC story lines of increases in CO2 emissions.)

Measurement Issues — Surface

HadCRUT5 Adjusts Temperatures Upwards Again

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Dec 16, 2020

(SEPP Comment: Forget measurements, do what the others do!)

Hotter than the hottest… uh…

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Dec 16, 2020

“So we’re comparing microwaves to tree rings if we make dogmatic statements about how recent readings compare with older ones.”

Sea-Surface Temperatures: Hadley Centre v. NOAA

By Andy May, WUWT, Dec 16, 2020

Changing Weather

Record Rainfall, Tornadoes and Frequent Heavy Snowfalls–UK Wild Weather in 1950

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Dec 13, 2020

Wild Weather In 1960!

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Dec 14, 2020

Changing Climate – Cultures & Civilizations

Case studies show climate variation linked to rise and fall of medieval nomadic empires

By Allie McBride for MIT News, Boston MA (SPX) Dec 16, 2020


Changing Seas

New Research Shows The Oceans Can ‘Spontaneously’ Warm 8°C In Under 100 Years ‘Without External Trigger’

By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Dec 17, 2020

Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice

The mystery of the Hudson Bay bears who left the coast in late 1983 with a video from the CBC archives

By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Dec 17, 2020

Changing Earth

Modern Iceland’s Climate Is Colder With More Ice Than Any Other Time In The Last 8000 Years Except The 1800s

By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Dec 14, 2020

Link to one paper: Holocene history of landscape instability in Iceland: Can we deconvolve the impacts of climate, volcanism and human activity?

By Áslaug Geirsdóttir, et al. Quaternary Science Reviews, Dec 1, 2020


New study helps pinpoint when earth’s plate subduction began

By Staff Writers, San Diego CA (SPX), Dec 14, 2020


Secret of Australia’s volcanoes revealed

By Staff Writers, Sydney, Australia (SPX) Dec 17, 2020


Link to paper; Intraplate volcanism triggered by bursts in slab flux

By Ben R. Mather, Science Advances, Dec 16, 2020


Lowering Standards

Once-in-a-lifetime floods to become regular occurrences by end of century

Flood levels reached by Superstorm Sandy could be seen every 4 years by the end of the 21st century

By Staff, Research News, Dec 15, 2020


Link to paper: Impacts of climate change on hurricane flood hazards in Jamaica Bay, New York

By Reza Marsooli & Ning Lin, Climate Change, Nov 26, 2020


“This study estimates the compound effects of SLR and TC climatology change on flood hazards in Jamaica Bay from a historical period in the late twentieth century (1980–2000) to future periods in the mid- and late-twenty-first century (2030–2050 and 2080–2100, under RCP8.5 greenhouse gas concentration scenario).” (Boldface added)

(SEPP Comment: NSF does not distinguish speculation from science!)

The wreck of the Great Lakes

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Dec 16, 2020

“Excuse us. We bought National Geographic thinking it was scientific propaganda. But we got science fiction instead. Can we have our money back?”

Communicating Better to the Public – Use Yellow (Green) Journalism?

Devastating skin disease that covers up to 70% of a dolphin's body and is related to climate change

News Release, The Marine Mammal Center, Dec 18, 2020 (H/t Bernie Kepshire)


Link to paper: Fresh water skin disease in dolphins: a case definition based on pathology and environmental factors in Australia

By Pádraig J. Duignan, et al. Nature Scientific Reports, Dec 15, 2020


From the abstract: “The common features of both events were (1) an abrupt and marked decrease in salinity (from > (greater than) 30ppt (parts per trillion) to < (less than) 5ppt) due to rainfall in the catchments, with hypo-salinity persisting weeks to months, and (2) dermatitis characterized grossly by patchy skin pallor…”

The moon controls the release of methane in Arctic Ocean

Research News, UIT, The Arctic University of Norway, Dec 14, 2020


Link to paper: Correlation between tectonic stress regimes and methane seepage on the western Svalbard margin

By Andreia Plaza-Faverola and Marie Keiding, Solid Earth, Jan 15, 2019


Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?

Australian cattle feed invention equal to taking ‘100 million cars off the road’ wins international prize

By Cameron Jenkins, The Hill Dec 18, 2020 (H/t Bernie Kepshire)


And the Arctic gets it… again

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Dec 16, 2020

“Until then, the article’s claim that ‘Perhaps it will jolt more of the public into supporting action to combat climate change’ sounds like wishful thinking on top of wilful exaggeration.”

How will sea levels change with climate change?

By Dani Leviss, Live Science, Dec 13, 2020 (H/t Bernie Kepshire)


“In some places, sea levels are actually falling.

“’This pattern of sea level change on the globe, called a sea level fingerprint, is distinct for that particular ice sheet,’ Austermann said, explaining how the melting Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets each have their own fingerprint patterns.”

Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.

Claim: We’re Closer to 1.5C Global Warming than You Think

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Dec 17, 2020

(SEPP Comment: More on UN IPCC science fiction.)

On Panorama, it never rains but it pours bogus facts

By Paul Homewood, The Conservative Woman, Dec 17, 2020

Scope 3 Emissions: A Climate Accounting Absurdity

By Steve Milloy, Real Clear Energy, Dec 16, 2020


US could reach ‘net-zero’ carbon by 2050. Here’s how.

By Rafi Letzter, Live Science, Dec 16, 2020 (H/t Bernie Kepshire)


Communicating Better to the Public – Use Children for Propaganda

Greta Thunberg Slams New Zealand’s Unambitious Climate Emergency

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Dec 16, 2020

Expanding the Orthodoxy

New UN Climate Emergency

By Tony Heller, His Blog, Dec 13, 2020


World urged to move on ‘climate emergency’ after pandemic

By Jitendra Joshi and Patrick Galey in Paris, London (AFP) Dec 12, 2020


“The UN said this week that global carbon pollution fell a record seven percent in 2020 due to pandemic response measures that curbed free movement and electricity demand.

“But it said that the emissions of China — the first to lock down and to reopen its economy after the virus emerged in the city of Wuhan a year ago — fell just 1.7 percent as Beijing sought a swift rebound from Covid-19.”

(SEPP Comment If you believe reported deaths in China of 3 per million, which has been the same for many months!)

UN’s call for ‘climate emergency’ is an invitation to misery in developing countries

By Vijay Jayaraj, India, Via GWPF, Dec 14, 2020

Wacky “War on Nature”

By Ron Clutz, Science Matters, Dec 15, 2020

Fed joins world central banks fighting climate change

By Staff Writers, Washington (AFP), Dec 15, 2020


UN Climate Ambition Summit Falls Flat

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Dec 13, 2020

GE All-in to Fight Climate Change, Urges Accelerated Replacement of Coal Power

By Sonal Patel, Power Mag, Dec 15, 2020

(SEPP Comment: Bigger profits in selling many new turbines than watching old, reliable ones generate electricity.)

Questioning European Green

EU apparatchiks want a 55% CO2 emissions cut by 2030

By Lubos Motl, The Reference Frame, Dec 11, 2020


How The Climate Crooks Lied To Get The Policies They Wanted

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Dec 15, 2020

Renewable energy disaster threatens to destroy thousands of jobs

By Staff, GWPF & BBC, Dec 12, 2020

Questioning Green Elsewhere

America’s Energy Supply and The Green New Deal

Video, CEI, Dec 18, 2020

Funding Issues

Coronavirus relief funds could easily pay to stop the worst of climate change (Op-Ed)

By David L. McCollum, Live Science, Dec 16, 2020


(SEPP Comment: As with the coronavirus, most of climate change is natural, But can man stop nature or just try to defend against it?

The Political Games Continue

Senators Should Object to Manchin-Murkowski Costly Energy and Climate Restrictions

By Myron Ebell, CEI, Dec 15, 2020


The Upcoming Biden Administration Calls For Extreme Levels Of Reality Denial

By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Dec 18, 2020


Litigation Issues

GAO Asks Court to Compel New Mexico AG to Stop Stonewalling in Discovery, Provide Answers to Questions About Work with Activists and Activist AGs

“EPA reveals AGO’s claim that records are shielded by ‘pending litigation,’ secrecy pact directly contradicted by New York Attorney General claim to WSJ

By Chris Horner, Government Accountability and Oversight, Accessed Dec 8, 2020

“Government Accountability & Oversight is a 501(c)3 non-profit organization dedicated to transparency in public officials’ dealings on matters of energy, environment and law enforcement.”

Heathrow: Climate activists lose legal battle to stop third runway at west London airport

The Supreme Court overturns a previous Court of Appeal ruling in a case brought by Friends of the Earth and others.

By Lisa Holland, Sky News, Dec 16, 2020


Subsidies and Mandates Forever

Mexico: Renewables Should Pay for Backup

Bly Donn Dears, Power For USA, Dec 15. 2020

EPA and other Regulators on the March

Trump administration finalizes second rule in days limiting habitat protections

By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Dec 17, 2020


(SEPP Comment: Is it limiting protections or guarding against highly speculative rule making?)

Trump administration rolls back efficiency standards for showerheads, washers and dryers

By Rebecca Beitsch, The Hill, Dec 15, 2020


(SEPP Comment: The time-efficiency of the public is not a consideration to the supporters of bureaucracy.)

Washington Post Trashes EPA Benefit Cost Analysis Rule

By Marlo Lewis Jr. CEI, Dec 18, 2020


(SEPP Comment: Many in Washington do not wish to see rigorous examination of the benefits and costs of proposed rules.)

Energy Issues – Non-US

We knew that they knew that we knew

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Dec 16, 2020

Mass blackouts after China cuts Australian coal imports

By Staff, The Times, Via GWPF, Dec 18, 2020

Mass blackouts after China cuts Australian coal imports

President Xi’s Con Trick

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Dec 16, 2020

President Xi’s Con Trick

China’s long term strategy appears to revolve around a massive expansion in nuclear capacity. This has long been the case, and has nothing to do with climate change, however much Xi may dress it up.

Instead, it has much to do with energy independence and long term security, particularly if coal reserves start to run out in a few decades time.

However, even in China, there are obstacles in the path of rolling out large mounts of nuclear power – it is not cheap and there are environmental issues. In the medium term then, China will remain almost totally reliant on fossil fuels.

The idea that renewable energy can ever fill the gap is pie in the sky.

Home Insulation

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Dec 18, 2020

Home Insulation

It’s a fix – part 1

Local electricity pricing isn’t all it’s cracked up to be

By Bruno Prior, GWPF, Dec 17, 2020

It’s a fix – part 1

“Market failure” often means “market outcomes I don’t like”, and “market improvement” often means “skewing markets to try to make them produce outcomes that I approve of (/in my interest)”. Unless the market improvement is removing obstacles to voluntary exchange, it reduces efficiency by definition, because no institutional change would have been required to make markets gravitate towards outcomes that are more cost-effective and not institutionally-inhibited.

Energy Issues – Australia

WA (West Australia) “Solves” the Solar Energy Duck Curve by Raising Evening Electricity Prices

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Dec 15, 2020

(SEPP Comment: Make the consumer pay: The bureaucratic solution to a problem that bureaucrats create!)

Climate Activist Aussie Politicians Leap to Rescue Vital Coal Power Plants

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Dec 15, 2020

Scott Morrison right to shun Boris Johnson’s Global Deep Green Club

By Judith Sloan, The Australian, Via GWPF, Dec 15, 2020

Scott Morrison right to shun Boris Johnson’s Global Deep Green Club

“‘Imagine Britain when a Green Industrial Revolution has helped to level up the country and British towns and regions — Teesside, Port Talbot, Merseyside and Mansfield — are now synonymous with green technology and jobs,’ Johnson waxed lyrically recently.”

(SEPP Comment: Ban the use of power equipment and create more jobs.)

Energy Issues — US

Remember: Not Everyone Can Afford Costly Energy

By David Holt, Real Clear Energy, Dec 16, 2020


Report Urges Reforming Surface Transportation for Long-Term Sustainability

News Release by Staff, CEI, Dec 9, 2020


Link to report: Reforming Surface Transportation for Long-Term Sustainability

How Restructuring Federal Highway Funding Can Prepare us for Future Transportation Challenges

By Virgil Payne, CEI, Dec 9,, 2020


Nuclear Energy and Fears

Nuclear Developers Dust Off Plans for More Reactors in U.K.

By Rachel Morison, Bloomberg Green, Dec 11, 2020


Vogtle Receives First Shipment of Nuclear Fuel

By Darrell Proctor, Power Mag, Dec 10, 2020

Vogtle Receives First Shipment of Nuclear Fuel

“The team leading the expansion, a project which would provide the U.S. with the country’s first new large-scale nuclear reactors in more than 30 years, earlier this year successfully completed the pre-startup review process conducted by the World Association of Nuclear Operators.”

Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind

Shuttering fossil fuel power plants may cost less than expected

By Staff Writers, Atlanta GA (SPX), Dec 14, 2020


Link to paper: Fossil electricity retirement deadlines for a just transition

By Emily Grubert, AAAS Science, Dec 4, 2020


(SEPP Comment: And blackouts will be just “transition.”)

Google Deepmind AI Project to Improve Renewable Energy Reliability Quietly Disappeared

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Dec 17, 2020

Huge Success! German Draft Bill Provision Deeming Green Energies A Matter Of ‘Public Safety’ Gets Deleted!

By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Dec 16 2020

Huge Success! German Draft Bill Provision Deeming Green Energies A Matter Of ‘Public Safety’ Gets Deleted!

Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other

The geothermal energy revolution

By David Wojick, CFACT, Dec 14, 2020


EU countries agree to ‘rapidly upscale’ hydrogen market

By Frédéric Simon, EURACTIV, Dec 15, 2020

EU countries agree to ‘rapidly upscale’ hydrogen market

“Member states have set aside their divergences on renewable vs ‘low-carbon’ hydrogen to focus on efforts to ‘rapidly upscale the market for hydrogen at EU level’.”

Exxon’s Algae Dry Hole ($300 million greenwashing failure continuing)

By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, Dec 16, 2020

Exxon’s Algae Dry Hole ($300 million greenwashing failure continuing)

Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles

Car makers warn electric car plans are “far removed from reality”

European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association calculates if EU targets of 30 million EVs by 2030 are to be met, their numbers must rise by almost 5,000%

By Hugo Griffiths, Auto Express, Dec 10, 2020


Health, Energy, and Climate

Cause of Death: Follow-up

By Kip Hansen, WUWT, Dec 18, 2020

Cause of Death: Follow-up

Restraint Doesn’t Work, Only A 1000% Tax On Sugar Will Help Solve The Global Obesity Health Crisis

By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Dec 12, 2020

Restraint Doesn’t Work, Only A 1000% Tax On Sugar Will Help Solve The Global Obesity Health Crisis

Environmental Industry

Green groups are China’s “useful idiots”

Press Release, Global Warming Policy Foundation, Dec 11, 2020

Green groups are China’s “useful idiots”

Link to report: The Red and the Green: China’s Useful Idiots

By Patricia Adams, GWPF, 2020


Politisierung des Geschäfts: Von CSR zu ESG

By Robert Bradley, Jr. Institute for Energy Research, Dec 15, 2020 (H/t WUWT)

Politicizing Business: From CSR to ESG

“‘The two greatest enemies of free enterprise in the United States,’ Milton Friedman once stated, ‘have been, on the one hand, my fellow intellectuals and, on the other hand, the business corporations of this country.’”

Other Scientific News

How hot is too hot for life deep below the ocean floor?

By Staff Writers, Bremen, Germany (SPX), Dec 14, 2020


Link to paper: Temperature limits to deep subseafloor life in the Nankai Trough subduction zone

By Verena B. Heuer, et al. Science, Dec 4, 2020


Mass extinctions of land-dwelling animals occur in 27-million-year cycle

By Staff Writers, New York NY (SPX), Dec 14, 2020


Link to paper: A 27.5-My underlying periodicity detected in extinction episodes of non-marine tetrapods

By Michael R. Rampino ,Ken Caldeira &Yuhong Zhu, Historical Biology, Dec 10, 2020


Other News that May Be of Interest

Charles Moore: Cambridge is a template for defending free speech

By Charles Moore, The Daily Telegraph, Via GWPF, Dec 15, 2020

Charles Moore: Cambridge is a template for defending free speech

The COVID-19 Data Is A “Travesty”

By Tyler Durden, Zero Hedge, Dec 16, 2020


Chance played a major role in keeping Earth fit for life

By Staff Writers, Southampton UK (SPX), Dec 15, 2020


Link to paper: Chance played a role in determining whether Earth stayed habitable

By Toby Tyrrell, Nature Communications, Dec 11, 2020



Boris Believes H2O and CO2 Are Toxic

By Tony Heller, His Blog, Dec 16, 2020


Eleven Years Ago Today Al Gore Predicted the North Pole Would Be Completely Ice Free in Five Years

By Cap Allon, Electroverse, Dec 13, 2020

North Face vs. Energy Reality, Business Civility

By Adam Anderson, Master Resource, Dec 17, 2020

Telegraph’s Puff For Green Energy

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Dec 12, 2020


Now We’re Cooking With Gas. But Tomorrow?

The Sierra Club hijacks a state agency in an effort to force Californians to use electric stoves and ovens.

By Allysia Finley, WSJ, Dec 16, 2020


The journalist writes:

“Californians pay twice as much for electricity as Nevadans and Oregonians do. In return they get rolling blackouts during heat waves and power cutoffs in windstorms to prevent fires caused by old equipment. So where’s the Public Utilities Commission’s Public Advocates Office? Its statutory mandate is ‘to obtain the lowest possible rate for service consistent with reliable and safe service levels.’ Instead it’s busy trying to banish fossil fuels.

“The office has teamed up with the Sierra Club against Southern California Gas. The Sierra Club has been pushing cities and the state Energy Commission to ban natural-gas hookups in new buildings. Some three dozen cities have done so.

“SoCalGas is fighting these bans, as are homebuilders, realtors and commercial real-estate groups, which noted in a public comment to the Energy Commission that ‘in a survey conducted just two years ago, over 70% of the respondents indicated they would NOT want a home with an electric stove.’

“Replacing natural gas appliances with electric ones is expensive. In the Central Valley, new-home buyers would pay $250 more a year to operate an all-electric home—and that’s before a planned 30% increase in electric rates over the next few years. The move to electric appliances would also increase demand for current, necessitating more blackouts. More than 120 localities have passed resolutions against gas bans.

“Enter the Public Advocates Office. It accuses SoCalGas of illegally spending ratepayer dollars on political advocacy. The office has asked the utility commission to fine the company $379 million. SoCalGas says shareholders have financed its political lobbying. It acknowledges having spent some ratepayer dollars on public education, which is permitted. The distinction between public education and political advocacy can be fuzzy. Electric utilities are allowed to spend ratepayer dollars to promote electric vehicles.

“SoCalGas has offered to open up its books to the utility commission for an audit on the condition that its records not be shared with outside groups. Proprietary information could affect trading markets if leaked. Accounting records also include private financial information of consultants and groups that the utility has paid. The Public Advocate has declined the proposal for an independent audit because it wants to share the records with green groups.

“In August 2019, the office signed a ‘common interest, joint prosecution and confidentiality agreement’ that allows it to share information from its SoCalGas investigation with the Sierra Club. SoCalGas obtained a copy of the agreement under the state’s Public Records Act. The agreement, however, shields other communications from public disclosure under attorney-client privilege.”

After a discussion of some of the political moves involved, the journalist concludes with:

“The Utility Commission will decide Thursday whether to allow the Public Advocates to subpoena SoCalGas accounting records. The Public Advocates shouldn’t be part of the Sierra Club’s campaign to banish fossil fuels, and ratepayers certainly shouldn’t be made to bankroll it.”


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